Corn and wheat end lower Friday with soybeans higher. However, for the week the grains were mostly lower.
Does this confirm a top in the grain markets?
Jim McCormick, AgMarket.Net, says both corn and wheat futures saw technical selling and profit taking. Both markets tried for four straight sessions to rally and ended lower after running into chart resistance.
That is generally a sign of a tired market but in this case, he says it could be a seasonal top unless there is a bigger bullish weather story.
He says corn planting is gaining some momentum in between rain events and he thinks progress could be ahead of the five-year average in Monday’s USDA Crop Progress Report. “I think the market was trading lower in anticipation of that. If we come in Monday and the weather looks more cooperative for planting, corn could take out key chart support areas it closed right above on Friday,” he says.
McCormick says the wheat market has priced in the production concerns in Russia, the Black Sea and EU. Unless exports pick up for the U.S. the market may have priced itself too high to be competitive.
The results of the Wheat Quality Council Tour in Kansas also weighed on the wheat futures as crop scouts pegged yields at 46.5 bushels per acre, well above last year and production was at 290 million bushels, up nearly 90 million from 2023.
Soybeans rallied on Friday and saw bull spreading with a push from higher soybean meal and bean oil.
McCormick says the market is concerned about the smaller crop in Brazil especially with flooding in the South damaging the crop and slowing processing efforts. Plus, continued rumors of tariffs on Used Cooking Oil supported the rally in bean oil late in the week.
