Grains markets faded on Wednesday on profit taking after hitting chart resistance, plus an increase in farmer selling and positioning ahead of the WASDE.
The May report from USDA is the first look at new crop estimates for the 2024-25 growing season.
Tomm Pfitzenmaier, Summit Commodity Brokerage, says the early new crop estimates for the May WASDE are larger than last year which could be potentially bearish. However, these estimates are in line with the USDA Ag Outlook Forum which could produce a neutral reaction if the report comes close to those projections.
Trade estimates for old crop ending stocks on corn are at 2.1 billion bushels. New crop yield is pegged at 180.3 bushels per acre and with the smaller acreage figure production will be below last year at 14.887 billion bushels. Ending stocks will increase to 2.582 billion bushels.
For soybeans average guesses put old crop ending stocks at 339 million bushels. New crop yield is estimated at 51.9 bpa and with higher acreage production increases to 4.44 billion bushels. That pushes ending stocks up to 436 million bushels.
The other key will be whether or not USDA reconciles the South American crop and bring it closer to Conab’s estimates. There is currently a big discrepancy between the two and USDA has disappointed the trade the last couple of reports by making only minor revisions.
South American production estimates show a smaller crop in Brazil with corn at 122.2 million metric tons and soybeans at 152.2 mmt. Argentina corn is pegged at 52 mmt, down 3 mmt from last month and soybeans are at 49.6 mmt.
Wheat ending stocks on the 2023-24 crop are estimated at 696 million bushels, down 2 mb. With new crop carryout increasing from last year to 786 mb.
