Arlan Suderman: Row Crops Grind Higher But Need Supportive WASDE to Confirm a Bottom

Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist with StoneX, says record yields may already be priced into the market but USDA will need to verify that or corn and soybeans may retest the lows.

Soybeans continue to grind higher on Monday after an ugly technical reversal on Friday pulling corn along for the ride.

Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist for StoneX, says the rally off of the lows in the grains has been primarily fund short covering.

So, to say the lows are in may be difficult without some confirmation in the WASDE at least the top end yield has been trimmed on corn and soybeans.

He says the big key will be seed size on the soybeans and it’s difficult to say what USDA will find in the field as a cool August usually increases seed size, while a dry August generally decreases seed size.

While Suderman isn’t expecting big changes in the September report he says with the uncertainty about how weather impacted how the crop finished there could be some surprises.

AgWeb-Logo crop
Related Stories
In their first on-camera interview since admitting a processing error in the September USDA Crop Report data, officials clarified that the mistake was a computer weighting issue.
Dave Chatterton with Strategic Farm Marketing says the markets needs a catalyst like South American weather or demand to find a bottom.
Scott Varilek with Kooima Kooima Varilek says the outside market news has been a factor in cattle but the main catalyst for the selling has been sharply lower cash trade which started breaking early in the week.
Read Next
Farmers rate their local FSA office well but give USDA crop data low marks, and they have ideas for closing the gap.
Get News Daily
Get Market Alerts
Get News & Markets App