Grain markets are mixed early with the stock market higher both trying to recover after the melt down on Wednesday.
Darin Newsom, Senior Market Analyst with Barchart, says soybeans are trying to stage a dead cat bounce after making new contract lows, along with soy products.
A combination of factors pressured the market including the large South American crop and benign weather, plus the collapse of the Brazilian Real which made contract lows to the U.S. dollar.
However, he thinks the main culprit was massive farmer selling ahead of possible changes in trade policy in the early part of 2025.
Can the market recover from the lows?
Newsom is hopeful because at four year lows he expects to see more export demand stimulated and there was 8.3 million bu. of new business Thursday morning, along with decent weekly exports of 52.3 million bu.
Corn took out major support on Wednesday as well but also tried to bounce early along with soybeans, but was drug down with wheat making new contract lows.
Wheat futures are seeing both technical and commercial selling according to Newsom and have not found a bottom yet with fears of sanctions being lifted on Russia in the new administration.
The stock market is also trying to recover after a major selloff reacting to the FOMC discussion of fewer interest rate cuts in 2025.
Cattle futures are under pressure with follow through fund selling and positioning ahead of the Cattle on Feed Report.
It looks like an intermediate top is in but it’s hard to tell if it is just fund profit taking says Newsom.
He says that market has looked toppy before only to roar back with higher cash.
