Grains close mixed Friday with livestock mostly higher, but both grains and cattle closed higher for the week.
March corn was up 8 1/4 cents, March soybeans gained 10 1/2 cents, March soft red winter wheat tacked on 13 1/2 cents, March hard red winter wheat gained 9 3/4 cents and March hard red spring wheat was 5 1/4 cents higher.
Tommy Grisafi with Nesvick Trading Company says with the strong week in the grain markets there is renewed optimism.
He says there wasn’t a great deal of new news and so the grain markets saw light holiday trade and rebalancing of portfolios end of year.
Corn was slightly higher again on Friday and made new 6 month highs, closing a second day above the 200-day moving average.
Grisafi says the corn market has been supported by robust demand and the lack of farmer selling especially with the announcement of $10 billion of market assistance in the Continuing Resolution.
However, with light holiday volume it didn’t take much to finally move the corn market above chart resistance.
So will this technical breakout result in the funds adding to their long position in corn and will the rally be capped by farmer selling?
Grisafi says, “The funds are probably long now around 200,000 corn contracts. I always tell my clients when the funds are speculating and buying we’re going up and that’s your chance to sell it to them. Remember how miserable prices were when funds were over 300,000 contracts short? Now we’re going the other way, take a little off the table for Jan, Feb and March.”
Wheat was also higher on fund short covering and with strong weekly exports of 22.5 million bu. and a softer U.S. dollar.
Soybeans and soybean meal ended lower on Friday on profit taking and disappointing weekly export sales of 35.9 million bu., which were a marketing year low.
Meal had rallied over $13 in the March contract on Thursday with dry extended forecasts for Argentina and reports of a fire at a Bunge soy processing plant in Illinois.
Grisafi says many market participants are bearish soybeans due to the large South American crop but sometimes that is when markets can turn or put lows in.
“When that money hits the market it can get crazy. If bitcoin can hit $100,000, of course bean can go up to $11 or $12 right?” he says.
Grisafi says managed money may be looking at commodities in 2025 as a possible hedge against inflation.
Cattle markets saw some mid-session pressure with the break in the stock market.
However, the futures rallied into the close and also ended higher for the week pushed by strong cutout values and higher cash.
Fed cash trade came in at mostly $192 in the South up $1 and mostly $307 in the North, up $2.
