Cattle 2-Sided After Lower Cash, Hogs Firm: Grains Make New Lows

Cattle drift digesting lower cash trade. Hogs reverse a lower start on strong weekly exports. Grains make new lows on USDA Ag Outlook data but soybeans bounce. Scott Varilek, Kooima Kooima Varilek, has more.

Cattle trading two-sided early in the session with live cattle posting the fourth lower day on profit taking and correcting the oversold status of the market. Cash trade started on Wednesday lower by $2 in the south at $182, with only light volume in the north with live prices $180-$181, steady to $1 lower and scattered dressed sales.

Scott Varilek, Kooima Kooima Varilek, says he was expecting even lower cash and towards the end of the day bids were being passed so he is optimistic about cash firming from these levels as producers still have the leverage. He is concerned about some chart damage in the June contract in live cattle which filled a gap and then closed below that level.

He cautions producers to make sure they are looking at risk management because feeder cattle replacement costs are high and the tendency will be to feed them longer with lower priced corn which will start to add to weights. Varilek says cash feeders are still hot in the country due to tight supplies.

Hogs started lower but then firmed extending gains after a strong technical day Wednesday on talk of a Prop 12 ban and anticipating strong weekly exports. Sales were confirmed at nearly 72,000 metric tons.

Grains open lower this morning and made new lows after the USDA Ag Outlook numbers showed bigger ending stocks in the coming marketing year. However, grains are trying to stabilize with hopefully the most bearish news worked into the market. Weekly exports were decent for corn at 51.5 mb but weak for soybeans at 13 mb and wheat at only 12.8 mb.

AgWeb-Logo crop
Related Stories
Jon Scheve of Scheve Grain says corn will have a difficult time finding a bottom until harvest pushes past 70%. After that the $8 billion of diesel aid will provide a bridge to help farmers store and wait for better prices.
Arlan Suderman of StoneX says corn and soybean charts have seen damage which triggers algorithmic selling and the end users are content to let the market come to them.
Craig Turner of StoneX says a close in corn below $4.70 would be negative for the market and open the door to further fund liquidation even though corn is oversold.
Read Next
Yield monitors are telling one story this fall. Settlement sheets are telling another, reports Ken Ferrie, Farm Journal Field Agronomist.
Get News Daily
Get Market Alerts
Get News & Markets App