Cattle Fall on H5N1 News, Disregard Higher Cash: Grains Extend Rally on Weather

Brad Kooima, Kooima Kooima Varilek, says cattle are trading more H5N1 headlines and disregarding higher cash, hogs are following. Grains are adding weather premium, but he cautions weather rallies are fleeting.

Cattle set back despite higher cash news with Canada putting import restrictions on lactating cattle for H5N1.

The market is also reacting to pictures released of the Texas dairy farm worker infected with bird flow after being infected from a cow. The pictures show he suffered bleeding in his eyeballs. It is thought to be the first known case of mammal-to-human transmission and comes as the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) warned bird flu (H5N1) viruses “pose pandemic potential.”

The market is also awaiting test results from FSIS on muscle cuts from dairy cattle condemned due to bird flu.

However, Brad Kooima, Kooima Kooima Varilek, says cash trade was strong last week at $184 in the South, up $2 live with Northern dressed based cattle volume at $295 up $1, but there were live sale trades up to $187.

He says supplies are extremely tight and so cash could be higher again this week and futures are at a discount which is supportive.

The discount of the futures to the cash is also a disincentive for feedlots to feed longer and so he’s hopeful that will start to be reflected in the weights.

Kooima says the market is moving into the strongest demand period for beef and demand seems strong with exports at a marketing year high last week and packers still chasing to get cattle.

Lean hogs set back with cattle and the futures premium to the cash index. The market is testing support and Kooima says it needs to hold or the futures could see a bigger correction.

Grains open mixed and quickly push higher on weather and fund short covering.

Technically, July corn, July soybean meal and even July soybeans are now above the 100-day moving average and that is attracting more technical buying with the funds still covering shorts in corn and beans.

Kooima says the market is concerned about South American weather and production issues, but as well planting delays in the U.S.

He cautions that weather rallies on planting delays can be fleeting and so he is not sure how much higher the market can go.

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