Cattle sharply higher, hogs mixed and grains lower early Monday.
Cattle Gap Into New Highs on Bullish Reports.
Joe Kooima of Kooima Kooima Varilek says both live and feeder cattle futures gapped higher into all-time and contract highs again on Monday morning on the heels of the bullish USDA Cattle on Feed and Cattle Inventory Reports.
The Cattle on Feed report showed on feed numbers at 98.4%, which was below estimates and the lowest inventory in eight years.
Placements were pegged at 92.1%, which was 6% below trade estimates and the lowest placements number for July in 16 years.
The Cattle inventory Report showed all cattle and calves at 99% verses July 1, 2023, and all of the other major categories were under 100%.
However, Kooima says if these numbers are compared to the January 1, 2025, inventory they showed a slight increase in numbers indicating there is some rebuilding of the herd.
As a result, he is cautioning producers to not get too bullish and instead he is advising risk management and hedging to protect these prices levels.
Cash Cattle Steady to Firmer
Adding fuel to the fire is cash trade was reported at steady to better money on Friday, although it was difficult Kooima says to get an accurate read with the lighter volume.
Southern deals were mostly $230-$232, steady to $1,$2 higher than the previous week’s weighted averages.
Northern dressed trade was mostly $380, with live sales at $240-$242, so steady to slightly higher.
Lean Hog Mixed to Start
Lean hog futures had a mixed start with the nearby contracts still unable to take out chart resistance despite the weekly slaughter trending 4.1% lower than last year, which is supportive.
Kooima says the disease issues that are causing tight numbers are an emerging story and are supporting cash and cutouts.
Yes, he says the market is also getting tired of the lack of movement on trade, especially as China and the U.S. kicked the tariff deadline down the road another 90 days.
Corn and Soybeans Make New Lows For the Move
Both corn and soybeans made new lows for the move again with old crop corn under $4 and soybeans under $10.
A trade framework with the EU was announced over the weekend but again contained very little indication of ag sales.
This also comes despite fresh flash export sales on corn again.
Kooima says weather has just been too good for corn and soybean production and is giving the funds no reason to buy the grain markets.
