Grains ended lower except for Chicago wheat, cattle and hogs were both down on the close.
Soybeans See Harvest Pressure
Mike Minor with Professional Ag Marketing says soybeans saw hedge pressure with a dry open weekend for harvest across the Midwest and long lines at soy processors.
He says soybeans are drying down fast and harvest pace is picking up steam and could be done in his area of Southwest Minnesota within a week.
Soybeans Suffer From Export Hangover
Soybean futures were also suffering a hangover from all the bearish export news the market had to digest last week.
The market was dealt several blows including China buying upwards of 40 cargoes of soybeans from Argentina after they dropped their export tax.
“China proceeded to buy 96 plus million bushels in a week and then you immediately saw news come that it looked like we’re not going to get a China trade deal done at least until October 31st when we meet in South Korea with them, if not early 2026 when we go to China. So at that point, it really gave the short side the green light to press on,” he explains.
Will $10 Hold in Soybeans
Minor says soybeans are still holding critical support which runs on the charts from $9.80 to $10.05.
He says how long those areas hold will be dependent on how far the funds want to push the short side of the soybean market ahead of a possible trade deal with China.
“I feel like we haven’t seen the big pressure from it yet because funds have been somewhat neutral. We haven’t really had a short or long position on managed money yet. And now with harvest just starting, we could seize that harvest pressure, push us a little bit lower, maybe to that $9.90 type area is what I’m assuming,” he says.
Soybean Marketing Strategy
Minor says with no China export business farmers selling soybeans are seeing poor basis levels at elevators and so they are trying to sell to processors.
With the chance of a China deal in the futures those that are forced to sell off the combine are looking at re-ownership strategies.
Minor says, “Re-ownership is probably the biggest question I’ve been getting the last couple of weeks on soybeans. But I am also seeing more farmers storing on the farm and waiting for the basis to narrow,” he explains.
Corn Slightly Lower: Can The Market Rally on Strong Demand and Lower Yields?
Corn futures additionally saw selling pressure after hitting chart resistance around the 20-day moving average but there is additional resistance at the gap area at $4.32 3/4.
“I think you’re battling back and forth between some support levels around $4.15 on the December futures and kind of that gap up there a little bit higher. So from my perspective, technically, I think this corn market looks very strong in this upward channel,” he adds.
He’s also been impressed with the recent flash sales to Mexico and other strong demand features.
“Then also you’ve got this disease pressure which is also helping us from the perspective of your crop is probably shrinking and if you look at spreads They’ve started to narrow up on the corn side pretty decently and usually that has a pretty good indicator of telling you Hey, you know what? Maybe the biggest crop is in,” he says.
Report Positioning
Grains may have also seen some positioning ahead of the USDA Quarterly Stocks Report.
Minor says the report has been a market mover historically and there could be a surprise in the corn stocks.
“So, this old crop corn that’s sitting in the bins as we go into new crop, in the Western Corn Belt especially, we haven’t seen elevators get real pinched. It seemed like they had plenty of available supplies going into this new crop harvest. And I would expect that this old crop balance sheet is gonna find a few more bushels in tomorrow’s report than what they had previously estimated. That’ll be something to watch.
He says that might be the reason corn consolidated back to some of these support levels or has not run higher because it is waiting to get this report out of the way.
Wheat Ends Mixed Still Looking for a Low
Wheat futures ended mixed with some support coming from the weaker U.S. dollar index but also squaring ahead of the Small Grains Summary and Quarterly Stocks Reports from USDA on Tuesday.
Cattle Futures Consolidate With Lower
Cattle futures saw some profit taking and consolidation with live cattle trying to work in last week’s lower cash trade and boxed beef values.
Minor says in the past as the boxed beef has broke the fed cash market has remained strong but now that Choice boxed are $40 off the highs cash could not hold.
The South was at $237, down $3 and the North live ranged from $231 to $233, with some a few head in Western Nebraska at $235. Dressed price volume was mostly $365, down $6.
Minor says the other big difference is the Southern cash is now trading premium to the North due to the tight supplies as the border remains closed to Mexican imports.
Lean Hogs See Profit Taking Off Contract Highs
Lean hog futures ended lower with some profit taking after hitting more new contract highs on Friday.
Minor says the USDA Hogs and Pigs Report was bullish and that helped support buying late last week but yet he was disappointed in the reaction and thought the market under performed.
The rally in hogs has been driven by fund buying but the funds are now record long and so he thinks they may have run out of buying interest at these higher price levels.
For that reason he also thinks the rally may be close to done.
