Grains and live cattle end mixed, with feeders, hogs and Class 3 milk higher.
Bryan Doherty, Total Farm Marketing, says March corn staged a chart breakout Friday above $4.35 and key moving averages, plus corn posted a higher weekly close which is encouraging.
He says the market saw technical buying pricing in strong demand with exports running 33% ahead of a year ago and a lack of farmer selling.
Doherty says the corn market was also pricing in lower ending stocks as estimates for Tuesday’s WASDE are right around 1.9 billion bu. but below November.
“I also want to point out that on Dec 25 corn you have a long term double bottom established this week with a daily key reversal Thursday and follow through today. I think that will entice managed money that wants to own something cheap going into the winter months to buy commodities like corn,” he explains.
Soybeans were steady to higher in the January contract and also posted a higher weekly close.
Demand has improved for soybeans and soybean oil on the export front and with record crush levels and that has supported the market.
Although he says the WASDE is expected to show very little change in exports, crush or ending stocks.
He is concerned the soybean market may not be able to hold current levels if tariffs are implemented by the new administration and with the record large South American crop on the way.
Doherty says if the South America crop is confirmed when the calendar flips to January there may be additional price pressure on soybeans.
Soft Red Winter wheat scored a double bottom this week on the charts according to Doherty and all three wheat classes ended higher for the week.
He’s hopeful the market has forged a low and can build on it especially with 37% of Russia’s wheat crop rated poor and increasing wheat export taxes to slow sales.
Feeder cattle futures closed higher Friday, but live cattle were mixed despite higher cash trade development in the South and North ranging from $190 -$192 and higher boxed beef values.
He says the live cattle market was suffering a hangover from the technical damage to the charts and poor close on Thursday.
Doherty thinks the failure of the live cattle to rally in the face of bullish news is a result of the market anticipating a slow down in demand into the end of the year.
Class 3 milk futures scored a higher weekly reversal and he thinks the lows might be in in that market.
