Grains opened higher Thursday, with livestock mostly lower.
Randy Martinson, Martinson Ag says corn and soybeans are trying recover after the lower closes Wednesday.
Renewed buying is tied to talk by President Trump that the U.S. will reach a trade deal with China that will include purchases of ag products.
Despite the harvest picking up in Brazil and soybeans being offered at much cheaper prices compared to the U.S., the soybean market is holding together well according to Martinson because of the fear of losing acres to corn.
“Soybean can only lose about 2 million acres with the current ending stocks at 380 million bu.,” he says.
Plus, although Argentina has received some rains it may be too late for much of the soybean and corn crop.
Corn and wheat both made new highs for the move yesterday before seeing some profit taking after getting up into chart resistance and likely seeing some selling as farmers rewarded the rally.
Martinson says wheat also removed some weather premium with warmer temperatures in the forecast for wheat areas.
All three wheat classes started higher in tandem with corn and soybeans Thursday morning but winter wheat classes are struggling to hold gains again on weather.
Martinson says the rhetoric between Ukraine and the U.S. regarding the Black Sea war is not getting much attention from the market and there is really no war premium built into current prices.
Cattle futures are back under pressure positioning ahead of USDA’s Cattle of Feed Report and with lower Choice beef values and a lack of cash trade.
So far this week only a small handful of live trade has been reported at $200 in some areas of Nebraska and Iowa, but certainly not enough sales to establish any kind of an accurate trade for the week.
The live and feeder cattle futures have been well supported technically and with the big discounts both are holding to cash.
Feeders are also removing some premium put in Tuesday with ideas the case of NWS in Mexico would restrict imports.
However, USDA has confirmed the border will remain open to imports.
Lean hogs are also seeing follow through fund liquidation after a sharply lower day yesterday and with a steep drop in cutouts the last few days by nearly $7.
