Grain and livestock markets close mixed Thursday.
Bryan Doherty, Total Farm Marketing, says corn ended lower on a combination of profit taking and farmer selling after running into chart resistance in the March around $4.50.
Weekly exports were a bit disappointing at only 37.3 million bu. which was down 45% from last week and 32% from the four week average.
The weakness in corn pulled the wheat market lower, plus wheat saw some technical selling and profit taking.
Weekly exports for wheat were also disappointing at 10.7 million bu.
Soybeans managed to hold their own despite lower feed grains, still holding chart support and with some unwinding of corn, soybean spreads.
He says support also came from USDA reporting another 12.3 million bu. flash export sale of soybeans to unknown destinations.
Weekly exports for soybeans were below last week at 43.1 million bu. but Doherty says commitments are still 12% ahead of last year showing solid demand.
Doherty says traders also realize that South America’s record crop is not made just yet and won’t be until January so its holding slight premium.
Live cattle futures made new highs for the move with sharply higher cash and cutouts but then failed.
The volume of fed cash trade has been steady to $3 higher.
However, Thursday dressed sales in the North ranged from $302 to $312 in the North and there were live sales at mostly $194 to $196.
Cutouts were also sharply higher at noon, yet futures ended lower.
So is this reversal a sign the market topping?
Doherty says it may be too early to tell.
Milk futures soared on Thursday with January Class III milk closing up $.73 at $20.25 per hundred weight with the February contract $.65 at $20.14.
Doherty says it was a combination of short covering and higher cheese prices.
However, he isn’t confident the rally has much upside as he thinks the market will be capped by increasing cow numbers and milk production.
“When milk prices hit their highs earlier in year it was due to perceived production losses due to H5N1 in the dairy herd. The only way we could retest those areas is with a big surge in demand,” he explains.
