Grains are mostly higher early Tuesday, with cattle and hogs also recovering.
Soybeans Lead Gains Pulling up Corn
Soybeans are seeing early gains Tuesday with help from a rally in both bean oil and soybean meal and that is supporting corn.
Hillari Mason with Pro Farmer says, “Obviously, that’s going to support the bean complex overall. And I think it’s supporting corn too.”
Market Fades Planting Progress
Planting progress was at 11% nationally on corn which was 2% ahead of normal and for soybeans 12% of the crop has also been planted which is 7 points ahead of average.
Mason says that is because while some areas of the corn belt are ahead of normal like the Southeast, Iowa is well behind on corn seeding at 2% against a normal of 8%.
“There are some weather challenges throughout the country that are you know keeping progress at bay,” she remarks.
Mason is in Southwestern Indiana where it was dry and so some producers may be done planting this week as they push to get the crop in ahead of another round of rain.
“If you look at Kentucky, they’re planning progress is well ahead. As you go farther South, it’s the same situation, you know, that it’s drier down there and just a lot done.”
She also thinks there will be some replanting and in fact there is a lot of replant going on in Southern Indiana right now.
“They just kind of went in, I think, at the wrong time and with some heavy rains some of the crop didn’t come up well either.”
She says they escaped the cold temperatures over the weekend and the frost that nipped some areas of the corn and wheat belt.
Corn and Soybeans Into Recent Highs
Corn and soybeans are up to recent highs and running into chart resistance but can the market get through those levels?
Mason says, “Old crop corn in particular. It just seems like a bit of a laggard. It needs support from something, whether it be wheat or soybeans. I will say that Dec corn, though, is also kind pausing and we really need to get above that 14, 20 day moving average on the December contract. We’ve got strong support at the 10 day, it seems. And I don’t think the bottom is going to fall out of corn. It feels like maybe we’re kind of just kind of hanging sideways until we get another catalyst.”
Soybeans are also up into chart resistance but still trading sideways.
She says that market is caught between higher bean oil and lower meal on any given day with the back and forth on the war and crude oil which influences bean oil prices.
Old crop soybeans are still waiting for the outcome of the China meeting mid-May.
“The meeting with Xi Jinping in May is going to be, everyone’s got that in laser focus. And, you know, we had news this morning from, well, the South China Morning Post had released a news or headline stating that the U.S. had intercepted a Chinese ship that had a gift to Iran. Now, we don’t know what that gift is, but it probably is not gonna favor the U.S. So, hopefully that doesn’t crimp that meeting that’s that’s scheduled,” she shares.
Wheat Sees Profit Taking Then Rebounds on Low Crop Ratings
Wheat was lower early on profit taking after running into chart resistance at last week’s highs but also trading war headlines and the higher dollar and rains chances in the extended forecast.
However, winter wheat crop conditions were down 4% and the good to excellent rating is at 30% nationally so she believes that market will be well supported on breaks.
Fertilizer Price Concerns
Mason says the concerns regarding fertilizer prices are also growing as margins and working capital is tight, plus even supply is a problem the longer the war lingers.
“I do believe that there were more producers than what we would like to think that didn’t have their nitrogen supplies locked in before the Middle East situation transpired and so I do think that that’s probably pushing some soybean acres and I am even seeing some bean on bean acres in Southern Indiana and into Illinois,” she explains.
Fertilizer Crunch
She says with the war lingering there are many countries that are stockpiling fertilizers or stockpiling commodities in general, so she thinks supplies will remain tight.
“Luckily we produce a lot of anhydrous ammonia domestically but urea we import a lot of urea about 30% from Russia and we get about a fifth of our UAN from Russia. So we really have to walk a tightrope with them as we move forward,” she adds.
Sulfer Supplies are Also a Concern
Mason says sulfur supplies are also a concern as it is a byproduct of natural gas processing and oil refining.
“Obviously there are a lot of refiners and natural gas processing plants that are offline given this situation in the Middle East and 90% of the world’s supplies are a product of that. We were actually tight on sulfur supplies in 2025 just because sulfur is used as a battery material. So,
the demand was there and there was, there were no new supplies coming online.”
However, she says supplies are even tighter now.
“That’s really going to throw a wrench into phosphates, right? Your DAP, your MAP, production. and so it does concern me,” she adds.
Plus there are exports bans on in Russia and Turkey and China has a ban on sulfuric acid with India considering a ban.
“So you’ve got all of these countries that are saying, whoa, hold the phone. Let’s pause and keep our supplies in-house before we send them out to the world and put ourselves in a real pickle.”
Cattle Try to Recover After Monday Selloff
Cattle futures are higher early Tuesday after a sell off to start the week.
The market has been spooked by the possibility of the border reopening to Mexican cattle as USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins will be in Arizona on Friday. Plus, the talk of another Justice Department investigation of the meat packing industry, while not new, was also a bearish factor.
Mason thinks the pullback is just a technical correction.
“My gut tells me that once you reach record highs, a pullback is healthy but there’s probably a segment of traders out there that are really concerned about maybe a partial reopening of the Mexico U.S. border but we’re not going to be flooded with feeders right away just because Mexico has been building their infrastructure,” she says.
