Grains end mixed with soybeans lower and corn and wheat slightly higher. Livestock close in the red.
Naomi Blohm with Total Farm Marketing says soybeans see another down day and made new contract lows with rains that fell the last 24 hours over part of Illinois and Iowa.
Plus, the extended forecast has turned cooler and wetter in major production areas of the central and Eastern Corn Belt bringing in follow through fund selling pressure that started already on Friday.
“Without a drastic change in the weather traders are going to be assuming that USDA’s yield number might be correct and we’re not seeing a lot of continued export demand,” she adds.
That could take carryout above the 400 million bushel level and the last time that happened soybeans fell to the $8 to $9 level, says Blohm.
So, she thinks if the weather continues favorable November soybeans could take out the $10 level and on a continuous chart if that level fails she says, “There is not much to catch prices until November gets down to the $9 level.”
While corn saw a little uptick Monday with spillover strength in wheat she thinks December corn will eventually take out $4.
However, it may take USDA confirming the yield is increasing above 181 bushels per acre on the next report.
“It’s an extremely vulnerable area on December corn futures. If $4 support fails there is not much to catch us on the charts and we could go touch $3.75, but the bigger downside points to $3.50.” she explains.
Meanwhile, wheat saw some light short covering or a technical bounce off new contract lows in Hard Red Winter and Soft Red Winter wheat.
Blohm says the wheat market has also lost more than $2 and U.S. wheat is becoming more competitive. “The hope is that will translate into better exports sales this week,” she adds.
Even though the global wheat crop is not perfect, she says the perception of the market is that supplies are adequate and that Russia is going to continue to sell grain to the world.
Live and feeder cattle futures set back on technical selling after hitting chart resistance and then the market proceeded to take out support and triggered sell stops.
“In the deferred live cattle and some of the feeder cattle contracts the market scored bearish reversals today. So that’s a technical topping signal potentially and especially if we can’t see any friendly news develop this week we might trade sideways to lower,” she points out.
Live cattle performance was disappointing considering last week’s $2 higher fed cash trade.
