Corn and soybeans are rebounding Wednesday after holding chart support and pulling up wheat as well.
Scott Varilek, Kooima Kooima Varilek, says the big supportive news was flash export sales of more than 77 million bushels of corn and 6.4 million bushels of soybeans. According to USDA, almost 64 million bushels of corn is headed to Mexico — a big chunk to be delivered during the 2024/2025 marketing year and the rest in the 2025/2026 marketing year. Another 13.4 million bushels of corn is headed to unknown destinations during the 2024/2025 marketing year. The soybeans are also headed to unknown destinations this marketing year. These big buys should provide a solid floor for the market as it proves end users see value at these price levels in the grains.
Cattle futures opened higher then struggled to overcome profit taking and hedge selling.
Varilek says the cattle market needs some new bullish news to keep the funds buying and defending their long positions and to push December live cattle over $190, including higher cash.
Varilek is calling the cash steady to better, while others in the trade have forecast steady to weaker on the idea that packers bought over 91,000 head negotiated last week and might not need as many cattle for this week.
He says consumer demand is strong and boxed beef values have improved with packer kill cuts, which should support stronger packer margins and at least steady cash prices.
Lean hog futures broke the uptrend line yesterday and closed lower caught up in the risk off selling commodity wide. However, Varilek says funds are buying Wednesday after the break with futures at a discount to the cash index and especially with cash up sharply Tuesday.
The National Direct Hog price was up $2.33, which was a bit of a surprise.
