Grains and cattle close higher on Thursday with hogs lower.
Grain Markets Bounce
Randy Martinson, Martinson Ag, says grains markets all closed higher on Thursday on report positioning and short covering as they held major chart support areas.
He says December corn took out the $4 mark on Wednesday but then closed back above that level signaling technical exhaustion.
Weekly exports were also supportive for corn at 6.7 million bushels old crop and a stellar 124.5 million bushels new crop.
Plus, more flash export sales were reported by USDA with Mexico buying 4.2 million bushels of corn for 2025-26 and Guatemala purchasing 4.1 million bushels of corn also new crop.
Is The Corn Market Bottoming?
Martinson says funds were aggressively selling in the corn market early in the week in bearish reaction to record private yield estimates ranging from 184 to 190 bushels per acre.
But he thinks the highest yield may be priced into the market.
Ahead of the Aug. 12 WASDE the average trade estimate on corn yield is 184.3 bushels per acre but Martinson says if USDA is under that number the market could rally and possibly put in an early low.
Soybeans See Short Covering but Weather Also a Factor?
Soybean futures ended higher as well Thursday on short covering and technical buying, plus spillover strength in corn and wheat.
However, the extended forecast turns hotter and drier in some areas which had some traders adding weather premium as the soybean crop is far from made.
Ahead of the WASDE report, the average trade guess for soybean yield is 53 bushels per acre but Martinson says that number is already priced into the market.
Weekly exports were also better than expected at 17.2 million bushels old crop and 20 million bushels new.
Still Martinson says new crop exports are behind last year’s pace and there is concern about the lack of China buying.
When Will China Buy U.S. Soybeans?
Martinson says China will eventually have to buy U.S. soybeans because they will needed inventory for the September-October time period and they can’t get all their needs met by South America.
He says the market continues to hope for some type of truce on tariffs before the Aug. 12 deadline but a broader deal is needed with China before harvest so the U.S. doesn’t miss its prime export window.
Wheat Builds on Reversal With Post Harvest Rally
After posting a key reversal off contract lows on Wednesday, September Kansas City wheat saw follow through buying.
However, Martinson says wheat demand has picked up with the low prices and weekly exports were solid at 27.1 million bushels.
Spring wheat saw a bit of risk premium added as Northern Plains production areas have received too much rain which is slowing the early harvest and causing quality issues.
Tariff and Geopolitical News Also Eyed by Traders
The Aug. 7 tariff implementation deadline saw 90 countries facing increased tariffs of 10% to up to 50%.
Martinson says the tariff tiff has also heated up with India which is facing another 25% tariff related to their purchases of Russian oil and the EU as President Trump says they have not invested in the U.S. as promised.
Meanwhile, Trump is trying to broker an end to the war between Russia and Ukraine and is expected to meet with Putin and Zelenskyy soon to broker a deal.
Martinson says that could have an impact on especially the global wheat market.
