Grains ended mostly higher, cattle posted a strong day, with hogs mostly lower.
Wheat Leads the Grains
Wheat futures ended higher on Wednesday and took the leadership role in the grain complex according to Tommy Grisafi with Nesvick Trading.
Reports of fields of ice in Russia may have induced some weather premium being added to the wheat market on winter kill concerns.
However, he attributes it more to light short covering and weakness in the dollar index and after bouncing off key support Tuesday and lifting off the lower end of its currently established trading range.
Grisafi has also been hearing from many of his clients in North Dakota that they may not plant hard red spring wheat in 2026.The combination of near record high fertilizer prices and low wheat prices have made wheat an unattractive option.Plus, quality issues the last few years that have impacted falling numbers.
March SRW futures remain rangebound in recent weeks, with firm resistance at last week’s high close of $5.35 1/2, and initial support at the 10-day moving average of $5.29 1/2.
Corn Follows Wheat, Sees Bear Spreading
Corn futures ended mixed seeing some bear spreading but shed early weakness with the help of a higher day in crude oil, soybean and double digit gains in wheat according to Grisafi.
- Corn futures continued to digest USDA’s 100 million bu. increase in exports and subsequent cut in ending stocks.
- USDA announced the sale of 230,560 MT or 9.1 mb of corn to unknown destinations in 2025/26.
- The EIA report raised ethanol production by 154,000 barrels per day a rebound from an earlier week of extremely cold weather and winter storms. Ethanol inventory inched up from 25.1 to 25.2 million barrels.
- CONAB will release updated expectations on Brazilian corn production tomorrow, with analysts expecting a 1.3 MMT increase from the January estimate to 140.1 MMT, according to Bloomberg.
- March corn futures dropped below the 10-day moving average this morning, which offered initial support at $4.28 1/2. Support now exists at the psychological level of $4.25 as movement remains rangebound. Resistance exists at the 20-day moving average of $4.29 3/4 and at the 40-day moving average of $4.32 1/2.
Soybeans Recover as Funds Buy on China Optimism
- The soy complex closed higher after early corrective selling. Grisafi says the market continues to see funds buying on the breaks due to optimism about additional China purchases tightening the balance sheets.
- The market saw initial profit taking after hitting new high closes for the move yesterday in soybeans and new contract highs in bean oil.
- Revisions to the White House fact sheet detailing the trade deal with India indicated the potential for soyoil imports is less likely than originally expected, pressuring the soy complex early.
- CONAB’s soybean production estimate tomorrow is expected to increase 3.4 MMT from last month to 179.5 MMT, according a Bloomberg poll .
- USDA increased their Brazilian production forecast 2 MMT from last month to 180 MMT
- March soybeans are facing resistance at last week’s intra day high of $11.37 3/4, while support lies at the psychological $11.00 level, with firmer support layered in the 10, 20, and 40-day moving averages.
Live Cattle and Feeder Cattle Closed Higher
- Live and feeder cattle futures ended sharply higher, with funds stepping back into buy after a round of profit-taking pressure that drove the market lower Tuesday.The market is awaiting cash direction to see if futures can take out last week’s highs.Which come at $244.57 ½ on April live cattle and $373.60 on March feeders.
- Cash cattle trade has been inactive to start the week.
- Choice boxed beef was down 41 cents at noon at $367.14 with select up $1.19.
- April live cattle futures continue to find support at the 20-day moving average of $237.05, Resistance remains at last week’s high of $244.575.
Lean Hogs Further Consolidate
- Lean hog futures continued lower on profit taking off of recent contract highs and maybe even some hedge pressure.Wholesale fundamentals have also weakened slightly.
- The pork cutout value fell 37 cents to $95.46 yesterday, but rebounded 57-cents at noon.However, The CME lean hog index was also down 14 cents to $86.32 coming into the session..
April lean hogs broke below the 20-day moving average and see the next firm support at the 40-day moving average of $93.57. The 20-day moving average of $95.56 now acts as first resistance for the contract.
