Grains End Week Lower on Fund Selling: Will Grains Hold Chart Support Ahead of the WASDE?

Darren Frye, Water Street Solutions, says speculators look like they are re-establishing their short positions at least in the corn and soybean markets. “They are selling on any rally,” he says.

Grain markets end lower on Friday with wheat as the anchor. Livestock were mixed to higher.

Corn and soybeans were unable to extend the big gains from Thursday.

Darren Frye, Water Street Solutions, says pressure in the grain complex was tied to technical selling as the funds pounced on those higher closes in corn and soybeans on Thursday. He says speculators look like they are re-establishing their short positions at least in the corn and soybean markets.

“They are selling on any rally,” he says.

All of the grains held support areas on Friday. However, he isn’t sure if funds will continue to sell next week and take those areas out or if they will hold as traders even up positions going into Wednesday’s WASDE.

Corn could not build on the key reversal up on Thursday and traders seemed to ignore the 3.8-million-bushel flash sale of soybeans to China and the hot dry extended weather forecasts.

Wheat was the anchor and also pulled down corn and soybeans. Wheat has been correcting after big gains in May and news that Turkey would ban imports of wheat also seemed to throw negative psychology on the market according to Frye.

Seasonal or harvest pressure and better than expected wheat yields are also dragging down the wheat.

All of the grains reacted to the strength in the dollar which was up sharply with the non-farm payroll coming in higher than expected at 272,000.

Feeder cattle rallied on short covering with the pullback in corn, while live cattle ended mixed. The market has continued to be in consolidation mode according to Frye but before the end of trade there was also very little cash trade to provide direction with only some $185 trade in the South, down $1.

Lean hog futures tested new lows for the move early and then got a short covering pop into the close. Frye is hopeful the market can build on that as its deeply oversold.

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Garrett Toay with AgTraderTalk says after the big rally to start the week the grain markets saw some profit taking and corrective selling.
DuWayne Bosse of Bolt Marketing says the wheat market was trying to extend gains early Thursday but may be getting close to pricing the Black Sea export disruptions in.
Oliver Sloup Blue Line Futures, says wheat prices skyrocketed adding risk premium on concerns about the escalating Black Sea war and the disruptions it is causing in the export market. It could have more upside left.
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