Grains Leaning Lower on Report Hangover, Better Wheat Conditions: Livestock React to HPAI News

Grains lean lower on USDA Report hangover, ideas of better wheat conditions than 2023. Cattle mostly lower w/HPAI spreading, which supports hogs despite a bearish report. Allison Thompson, The Money Farm, has more.

Grains leaning lower with USDA Report hangover. Allison Thompson, The Money Farm, says the reality is sinking in that regardless of lower corn acres the ending stocks could still be above 2.0 billion bushels.

Plus, she says the market is questioning where the 6.4 million acre loss to principal crops came from and she is anticipating total acres will be adjusted upward in the June report.

The wheat market is seeing the most severe losses, pulling down corn and wheat. Winter wheat areas have seen decent precip with more in the extended forecast. Plus, the first USDA crop condition report is likely to show a much better wheat crop than a year ago.

Corn and soybean meal may also be seeing some reaction to the HPAI news on ideas of lower feed demand.

Live and feeder cattle futures started mostly lower with news over the holiday weekend that Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza is continuing to spread in the dairy herd, now confirmed in Idaho and Michigan and there is concern it could be spreading cow to cow. Plus, cash trade developed $2-$3 lower. However, feeders at least have bounced off chart support and are off lows even a little higher in some contracts.

Hogs opened lower in reaction to the Hogs and Pigs Report and some of the bearish numbers regarding productivity. However, the market quickly bounced off the HPAI news and as hog futures are on the long side of spreads with cattle.

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Garrett Toay with AgTraderTalk says after the big rally to start the week the grain markets saw some profit taking and corrective selling.
DuWayne Bosse of Bolt Marketing says the wheat market was trying to extend gains early Thursday but may be getting close to pricing the Black Sea export disruptions in.
Oliver Sloup Blue Line Futures, says wheat prices skyrocketed adding risk premium on concerns about the escalating Black Sea war and the disruptions it is causing in the export market. It could have more upside left.
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