Grain and hog futures end mostly higher Thursday with a tough down day in cattle futures.
Grains Rally as Argentina Renews Export Tax
John Heinberg with Total Farm Marketing says grain markets rallied on Thursday as Argentina’s government announced it would be renewing its export tax.
The tax of 26% on soybeans and 9.5% on corn exports was dropped on Monday to raise revenue and in three days the government sold enough to raise their $7 billion goal.
The re-implementation of the levy is friendly for U.S. grain markets but the damage was already done.
China Bought Up to 35 Cargoes of Argentine Soybeans
With the sharply lower Argentina prices China reportedly bought up to 35 cargoes of soybeans and could have it’s needs booked through November.
India also stepped in to buy Argentina soybean oil.
This coincided with the U.S. offering a $20 billion assistance package to prop up the value of their currency, the peso.
So Heinberg says its unclear if Argentina really met their $7 billion goal or not.
Corn Boosted by Strong Exports
Corn was also boosted by strong weekly exports at 75.7 million bu. putting cumulative commitments three weeks into the market year at 1.1 billion bu.
Heinberg says this means the U.S. is well on its way to reaching USDA’s 2.975 billion bu. record export projection for 2025-26.
Corn Yields Also Dropping, But Prices Being Held Back
Corn yields are also lower than a year ago in many of the early yield reports in the Southern and Eastern Corn Belt.
But despite strong demand and shrinking supplies the market can’t seem to get above resistance areas on the charts.
Heinberg says that’s because the market is well aware that with a record 98.7 million acres of corn planted it will take a severe yield loss to not still end up with a record crop.
Wheat the Leader Thursday?
Wheat actually led gains on the day and did it despite the stronger dollar.
Heinberg says technically the market posted some key reversals earlier in the week but he thinks traders are also adding war premium.
“President Trump spoke at the U.N. Summit this week and has changed his stance on Ukraine saying he thinks the country can take back some of the land lost to Russia,” he says.
This has resulted in further escalation of the war.
Cattle Futures Consolidate Further with Lower Cash and Cutouts
Cattle saw significant losses on Thursday in both the live and feeder futures with technical selling as contracts broke below the 20-day moving average.
However, Heinberg says lower cash trade developed in the North at $365 dressed, down $6 from last week, some delayed delivery weeks of October 6 or October 13. Also, light trade in the South with live deals at $237, $3 lower than last week’s weighted average.
Boxed beef values were lower.
“The Choice cutouts have lost over $40 from the highs,” he says.
No Beef Aid
Ag Secretary Brooke Rollins also disputed talk earlier in the week about aid for beef producers.
This comes after USDA had reported it was looking at some type of cattle revitalization program that included an additional $100 million to combat New World Screwworm.
Lean Hog Futures Mostly Higher Awaiting Report
Nearby lean hog futures rebounded on Thursday and were hovering around contract highs awaiting the Hogs and Pigs Report.
The quarterly summary indicated all hogs and pigs on September 1, 2025 was 74.5 million head. This was down 1% last year, but up 1% from last quarter.
Breeding inventory, at 5.93 million head, was down 2% from last year, and down slightly from the previous quarter.
Market hog inventory, at 68.5 million head, was down 1% from last year, but up 1% from last quarter.
So he views the report as a little friendly.
