Grains Rangebound Ahead of Planting: Cattle Plunge on HPAI Fears

Tommy Grisafi, Advance Trading, says grains trade quiet and rangebound ahead of planting season, with one eye on weather. Cattle saw huge market losses for the week, and he thinks that volatility may continue.

Grain and livestock markets end mixed Friday.

Corn ended lower after hitting chart resistance at the 50-day moving average and consolidating, divorcing itself from the higher soybean and wheat markets. Tommy Grisafi with Advance Trading says corn on a chart is moving sideways.

However, he says corn is also being limited by the big ending stocks. “The weight of that burdensome supply is real, we can’t fake having too much.” Plus, there has been farmer selling before the planters start to roll and to generate cash for planting with interest rates at such a high level.

The grains markets have also been watching weather, but in particular corn. Grisafi says some areas of the Corn Belt received some beneficial moisture recently and that may also be anchoring prices with ideas of better yields.

Wheat saw a short covering rally but news on Russian export issues due to quality problems was also supportive.

While soybeans followed soybean oil which has been rallying along with crude oil. However, Grisafi says soybeans and wheat are also rangebound technically and soybeans can’t seem to close above the $12 mark.

Cattle futures tanked again Friday and made new lows for the move. Live and feeder cattle futures were also down sharply for the week on HPAI fears and fund selling and liquidation. While Grisafi thinks the market is overreacting as meat and milk is safe he also cautions that right now the funds just want out of the market.

Meanwhile, funds moved over to buy hogs which saw more contract highs.

The stock market also had a down week with fears of inflation and higher for longer interest rates.

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Garrett Toay with AgTraderTalk says after the big rally to start the week the grain markets saw some profit taking and corrective selling.
DuWayne Bosse of Bolt Marketing says the wheat market was trying to extend gains early Thursday but may be getting close to pricing the Black Sea export disruptions in.
Oliver Sloup Blue Line Futures, says wheat prices skyrocketed adding risk premium on concerns about the escalating Black Sea war and the disruptions it is causing in the export market. It could have more upside left.
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