Grains are quietly mixed Thursday as well as hogs, with cattle lower.
Corn Tries to Hold Gains as Weather Trumps Trade and Export News
Randy Martinson, Martinson Ag, says corn saw some early strength bouncing off support areas on the charts but with at least some reaction to flash sales of 5.3 million of new crop corn to China and 11.2 million of corn to unknown destinations, with 7.9 million bu. of new crop and 3.3 million bu. of old crop corn to unknown destinations remained.
At 9:15 am USDA corrected the sale to China and switched the origin to South Korea causing the market to come off its highs but at least hold slight gains as at least it was favorable demand news.
Exports Thursday morning were better for old crop corn at 25.3 million bu and new crop at 28.9 million bu.
Pollination problems in corn are also continuing to expand to additional states, with the northern tier just starting pollination.
However, Martinson says corn is struggling to hold early gains as weather and ideas of a record crop continue to hang over the market which is trumping any positive news on the trade front.
Soybeans Struggle
Soybeans opened higher with help from corn but have backed off to trade just steady, again as Martinson says the market marks time until August when the soybean crop is made.
News on trade frameworks with Japan, South Korea, and others have failed to impress the market as they lack detail and it may take weeks or months to see sales.
The soybean market is waiting for more news on talks with China which will take place early next week, although agriculture has been absent from the discussions.
Soybean exports were at 5.9 million bu. old and 8.8 million bu. new and China has still not bought any new crop soybeans from the U.S., which Martinson says is concerning.
Wheat Can’t Bottom
Martinson says wheat continues to disappoint as it seems unable to confirm a bottom even with winter wheat harvest over 75% done.
Wheat exports were solid on Thursday at 26.2 million bu.
The Wheat Quality Council Tour also continues to find a smaller spring wheat crop than a year ago in the top producing state of North Dakota, which is also providing little support to futures.
He says peace talks between Russia and Ukraine to end the war threw a wet blanket on the market.
Cattle Consolidate Ahead of Cash and Reports
Live and feeder cattle futures were softer early Thursday with some light profit taking after making all-time highs again on Wednesday.
The market has received favorable trade news with Australia opening its market to U.S. beef after 20 years and beef making gains in market access in the Japan and South Korean trade frameworks.
Export sales were also strong with beef net sales of 16,700 MT for 2025, up 90% from the previous week and 46% from the prior 4-week average.
However, the market is awaiting direction from this week’s cash trade and USDA’s reports on Friday, including the Cattle on Feed and Semi-Annually Inventory Report.
Lean Hogs Trade Both Sides
Lean hogs opened lower with cattle and after running into chart resistance but traded 2-sided on Thursday.
However, Martinson says the funds seem to be interested in buying hogs on the breaks.
Plus, the market has been propped up off July lows by higher cash and cutout values tied to better demand.
