Grains Try to Bounce Off New Lows: Near Term Highs in Cattle

Grains try to bounce after making near term lows Tuesday. Kent Beadle, Paradigm Futures, says markets are trading weather and positioning ahead of delivery and USDA reports.

Grains are mixed to higher trying to bounce after making new lows for the move on Tuesday and being super oversold.

Some contracts like November soybeans even scored fresh near-term lows again on Wednesday morning before recovering.

Kent Beadle, Paradigm Futures, says funds have been selling based on weather with the rains in the Eastern Corn Belt trumping the flooding in the Northwest.

Dry areas of the Corn Belt have received some much-needed rain the last few days, including Illinois and temperatures have cooled.

Meanwhile, there are disruptions to grain delivery, ethanol production and soybean crushing at plants in the Midwest due to flooding and damaged rail lines. However, Beadle says these disruptions should be short lived.

The trade is also positioning end of month and quarter and there has been some pricing of basis fixed contracts by farmers before first notice day on Friday.

The market is also gearing up for the USDA reports on Friday with a build over last year anticipated in the Quarterly Stocks Report.

Corn stocks could be up over 700 million bushels from last year, soybeans, over 150 million and wheat over 100 million bushels gauged by the early trade guesses.

Average trade guesses on acerage show an increase of around 800,000 acres combined between corn, soybeans and wheat according to Beadle.

However, the market may have some of this bearish news priced in with the recent sell off.

Live cattle futures make new highs for the move anticipating higher cash and with the futures at a discount to last week’s record weighted average cash trade.

Beadle says so far cattle haven’t seen much profit taking going into the end of the month and quarter and even if that happens he thinks it will be a shallow correction.

Meanwhile lean hog futures see short covering and short profit taking after new contract lows on Tuesday.

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