New Lows in Corn and Beans on Weather and Tour Anticipation: What is Priced in Already?

Wheat sees a short covering bounce, while cattle fall with fund liquidation and lower cash.

Corn and soybean futures make more contract lows on Friday with fund selling and closed the week over 45 cents lower on November soybeans and 2 1/2 cents lower on December corn.

Chip Nellinger, Blue Reef Agri-Marketing, says the selling pressure was triggered by beneficial rains the last few days in many areas of the Corn Belt.

However, the market was also bearishly anticipating the Pro Farmer Crop Tour will confirm the record yields in the August 12 WASDE.

How much is priced into the market already?

Nellinger thinks a lot of the hype about record yields has already been baked in but the market will still be watching the tour to establish the 183.1 bushel per acre corn yield record and 53.2 bushel per acre soybean record from USDA.

He says there was also a pick up in farmer selling of old crop bushels prior to harvest and the impending First Notice Day.

Wheat divorced itself from row crops late in the session and saw short covering, which Nellinger says was impressive with in light of the lower row crop markets.

However, can the market bottom without a pick up in wheat demand?

Cattle saw more fund long liquidation with lower cash trade at $185 in the South down $1 to $2 from last week. Northern trade was mostly $190 live, down $2 to $3 and dressed business at $298, down $6.

Hog futures followed cattle lower but also saw end of the week softness in the cash and cutouts with the National Direct Market hogs down $2.51 at noon and carcass values were down nearly a $1.

AgWeb-Logo crop
Related Stories
Shawn Hackett with Hackett Financial Advisors says he sees higher prices ahead for the grain markets.
Darin Newsom, senior market analyst with Barchart, says it is not unexpected to see a little profit taking moving into the end of the month. However, he thinks any breaks will be bought by the trend following funds.
Jim McCormick with AgMarket.Net says the market saw massive fund buying and short covering adding war or geopolitical premium.
Read Next
Red crown rot is now active in at least eight Midwest states. The significance of the disease is building. The Crop Protection Network estimates 7.7 million bushels of soybeans were lost in 2025 versus 121,000 bushels in 2024.
Get News Daily
Get Market Alerts
Get News & Markets App