Soybeans and products rebounded on Friday on short covering, hotter and drier weather and additional flash export sales, plus a rally in bean oil. Meanwhile corn ended lower being drug down by new contract lows in wheat.
The markets will now have to react to the Pro Farmer crop estimates, which were released after the markets closed.
Pro Farmer pegging corn yield at 181.1 bushels per acre with production at 14.979 billion bushels.
This puts corn supplies 121 million bushels below USDA’s August estimate so if confirmed will it pull corn ending stocks below 2.0 billion bushels?
The answer is yes according to Brian Grete, editor of Pro Farmer, led the Eastern Leg of the 2024 Pro Farmer Crop Tour.
However, Grete says soybeans stole the show on the crop tour with high pod counts and good moisture across the seven states surveyed.
Pro Farmer estimated yield at a record 54.9 bushels per acre with Grete pointing out not only were pod counts huge but there is enough moisture to help get the crop finished.
They also estimated production at a record 4.74 billion bushels, which is up 140 million bushels from USDA’s August estimate.
So, will this push ending stocks above 600 million bushels.
Grete says in all likelihood the carryout could be well above 600 million but he thinks much of the bearishness has already been priced into the market.
Despite averting the Canadian rail strike all three wheat exchanges pushed to new contract lows for a second day.
Funds continue to push the short side of that market says Grete and have accumulated a record short position in the grains.
“The funds are comfortable and I don’t see them changing without a major catalyst and at this point I’m not sure what that would be,” he says.
