Pro Farmer released crop estimates on Friday putting corn yield at 168.1 bushels per acre (bpa) nationally and soybeans yield at 51.7 bpa. They also announced their state yield estimates, which take into consideration tour results plus other factors like weather, crop ratings and historical tendencies.
We compared Pro Farmer’s numbers to USDA’s state yield estimates in the August WASDE to determine the biggest misses in the east and west. Soybean yield projections were all within one to two bushels of USDA. However, corn yields were all below USDA’s estimates, ranging from 2% to as high as 17% in South Dakota.
Pro Farmer is pegging South Dakota’s corn yield at 122 bushels per acre (bpa) verses USDA’s 147 bushel figure in August, a 25 bushel drop. The crop in the southeastern corner of the state faced several stress periods during the season, starting out with delayed planting and hot dry weather at pollination. Pro Farmer’s Eastern Leg Tour Leader Chip Flory says, “The heat that we had during pollination is showing up in some of the ears that we’ve sampled because of some shot gun pollinating, not getting pollinated in the butt of the ear or the tip of the ear.” Intensifying drought in the post pollination period in that area also resulted in low ear counts and reduced kernel depth.
In the eastern corn belt Ohio was the biggest loser. Pro Farmer projecting yields for the state at 175 bushels per acre verses USDA’s 190 bpa estimate in August. That a 15 bpa drop or a 7.9% difference. Delayed planting and replanting were followed by heat and dryness during pollination which hurt grain length and late season rain came too late. Pro Farmer Editor and Eastern Leg Lead Brian Grete says, “We saw this field here had tip back. Whenever you have issues early in the growing season they kind of show up as you progress toward harvest.” This follows what Grete says was the best corn crop he’d ever seen in Ohio in 2021.
So the market may be expecting some revisions when USDA does their first objective field survey’s for the September WASDE report that comes out on the 12th.
