Grain end mixed with livestock lower on Monday.
Pro Farmer Editor Brian Grete, says soybeans fell with rain in Brazil over the weekend and big crop estimates, plus a disappointing NOPA crush report.
“It was a combination of both. We’re seeing that production in Brazil record large but now moving into that 170 to 172 MMT for most of the private estimates and there aren’t too many concerns out there for the crop with these recent rains,” he says.
NOPA crush for November came in at 193.2 million bu. which was up 4.1 million bu. from last year and a record but below estimates by 3.5 million bu.
Grete believes the big South American crop and tariff fears are already priced into soybeans which should protect the downside but says he’s concerned about money flow.
“If you get into a money flow situation and you make new lows its really hard to tell just how much pressure funds could put on the market place,” he says.
Corn held up and ended slightly higher on a weaker dollar, continued fund buying and spread action with soybeans.
Funds are long in the corn market and continue to test chart resistance areas on the charts plus corn is seeing a push due to strong demand with export inspections at 44.5 million bu. and smaller ending stocks.
Grete thinks with the Brazilian Real falling to new lows to the U.S. dollar that may lead to more acres of Safrihna corn being planted.
Meanwhile, wheat ended mixed caught between the action in corn and soybeans.
He says it’s too early for the Russian production issues to fuel a big rally but it will in 2025.
“U.S. wheat demand will have to be triggered to get a rally in the market though,” he says.
Cattle futures ended lower on profit taking and fund long liquidation.
Nearby live cattle futures made new highs for the move on the heels of a nearly $3.50 jump in the cash market but then reversed.
That triggered some profit taking and fund liquidation, with the funds holding their third longest position in history.
Grete says, “We’ll be watching to see if we get follow through tomorrow we could see a bigger correction and more active fund liquidation.”
Going into the last full slaughter week of 2025 the packers may not need to be quite as aggressive on their cash bids because they don’t need supplies.
“We may have put the cash top in the fed market,” he adds.
Feeder cattle futures were also lower anticipating the reopening of the Mexican border.
USDA clarified that Mexican cattle imports under new protocols won’t resume until early 2025.
Plus, there may have been positioning ahead of the Cattle on Feed Report.
Greate says lean hog futures also saw continued consolidation and liquidation by the funds who are slowly exiting their record long position in the market.
