Corn and soybeans end lower Monday, with wheat higher. Cattle also see strength, with hogs mixed.
Brian Grete, Pro Farmer Editor, says soybeans roll over and make new lows for the move on souring China and U.S. trade tensions and the idea the wet weather in some parts of the Corn Belt may shift some acres of corn over to soybeans.
Soybeans took out key moving averages and with funds still long in the soybean market there is more downside risk according to Grete.
The selloff in soybeans weighed on corn, which started the day higher on spillover strength in the wheat market.
Grete says the corn market has continued to struggle and see bear spreading, despite strong demand from ethanol production and exports. Some of the pressure in the July may be tied to South American competition as the Brazil crop is now forecast at 139 MMT by SAFRAS.
The best chance for a rally is a weather scare but seasonally the corn market often tops out prior to July 4.
“So if we don’t get a rally from now until the end of June, then then it’s probably pretty slim pickings. Unless the July weather is is unfavorable. And we all know that the history of July weather. The temperatures and the precipitation during that month are very critical,” he says.
Corn is still holding the May lows, which were also the lowest prices in 2025 but could they be vulnerable with soybeans making fresh lows?
Grete says, “Boy, bulls are gonna really have to step up here and defend that level. If they don’t, I think if you pick them off, then you probably do see some sell stops underneath those levels, and it pushes us down the next layer level lower. The good news is that we’re already seeing end user demand signal that there’s value buys at current levels and so we shouldn’t have a whole lot of downside risk if we do violate that support but I think that there would be some at least short -term price pressure then.”
Wheat ended higher as funds covered shorts with traders adding geopolitical premium due to Ukraine’s drone bombing in Russia.
“I think the most interesting thing is wheat is rallying or at least holding its own ahead of what will be the winter wheat harvest here very soon. And so typically from a seasonal perspective, you would see wheat face some price pressure and it’s held up really well,” he says.
That’s partially because hard red spring wheat saw a 37 year low initial crop rating at 45% and that has been helping to support the winter wheat classes.
Live cattle futures reluctantly chased fed cash, which traded at record levels.
Cash cattle averaged a record $229.94 last week, up $2.97 from the previous week. Cash prices have risen for seven consecutive weeks, with the last six being records. Over the past seven weeks, cash prices have surged more than $22.00.
Grete says the cash premium to the futures is extremely wide and fund traders seem apprehensive to add on to long positions.
“We’re at rarefied air at these price levels and so funds are not wanting to be too aggressive pushing the long side of the market. At some point it’s going to end. It’s just a matter of when and so I don’t think they want to necessarily call a top in the marketplace so they’re not going to be sellers and the big discount to the futures,” he explains.
Lean hog futures have the exact opposite setup with futures at a premium to the Lean Hog Index and so the market saw a bit of bear spreading Monday and some consolidation.
Funds have been adding to their long positions at the same time the cutout values have crossed $107 and the Lean Hog Index has been rising.
However, Grete says its not rising fast enough so traders took a break to allow it to catch up.
