Market Analysis
A case of New World Screwworm (NWS) only 52 miles from Texas was reported by USDA on Thursday making it the closest detection to the U.S. to date. Brad Kooima with Kooima Kooima Varilek says that is pressuring cattle futures.
The row crop and cotton markets saw some early support Thursday from a rally in crude oil as doubts about the peace deal with Iran came into question.
Grains markets were mostly higher Thursday morning except hard red winter wheat following a bounce in crude oil says Mike Minor with Professional Ag Marketing.
Corn and wheat futures saw more fund selling and long liquidation end of month but it was triggered by war headlines. Chuck Shelby with Zaner Ag Hedge says those markets continue to remove risk premium.
Alan Brugler with A&N Economics, Inc. says the grain market traders are cautiously optimistic a cease fire or peace deal between the U.S. and Iran is near and took out war premium Tuesday.
Joe Kooima with Kooima Kooima Varilek says at least initially it looks like the cattle futures had already anticipated the negative report data with the sell off late last week.
Mike Castle of StoneX says corn and soybeans added some war premium on Friday but are trading under recent highs. What could trigger a rally to retest those prices?
Scott Varilek with Kooima Kooima Varilek says the pressure came from fund long liquidation and was continuing on Friday with significant chart damage done.
Grains markets were lower seeing speculative selling pressure on a lack of fresh bullish news and profit taking end of month according to Naomi Blohm with Total Farm Marketing.
Jon Scheve with Scheve Grain says the grain markets are looking for bullish news and without China purchases soon have the grain markets put highs in?
Mark Schultz with Northstar Commodity says the market was skeptical about the lack of specifics in the framework before China denied the purchase amounts.
The grain market failed on profit taking as traders want to see more details on China purchases or flash sales says Brian Grete with CommStock Investments.
Lane Akre, economist with Pro Farmer, says much of the China news is priced into grain futures so to continue to see momentum the market will need to see some proof of purchases.
Mike Zuzolo with Global Commodity Analytics says the $17 billion is above the 25 MMT of soybean purchases China committed to in October of 2025.
Grain and hog futures were sharply higher on Monday morning as the White House released details of the China trade framework on Sunday which includes $17 billion of ag purchases per year.
Did this week’s disappointment regarding the China summit top the grain markets for the year?
Shawn Hackett with Hackett Financial Advisors says the market was removing China premium after the disappointing summit as the market wanted more details on ag purchases.
Scott Varilek with Kooima Kooima Varilek says cattle futures are back trading higher with their huge discount to the record cash trade. He says cash trade could get even crazier.
Grain markets crashed on Thursday with profit taking and fund liquidation tied to disappointment over the lack of agricultural purchase agreements during day one of the U.S. China summit.
The grain markets were sharply lower Thursday morning with soybeans seeing 30-cent losses on disappointment the China summit has not produced any agricultural purchase agreements.
Sam Hudson with Cornbelt Marketing says corn and soybeans were firmer on inflationary buying and optimism regarding the China summit. Cattle soared with higher cash.
Jamie Gieseke with Paradigm Futures says commodities are starting to gain favor with the funds on inflation fears and that includes grains. A China deal could just add fuel to the fire.
Both classes of winter wheat ended limit up on the day as USDA shocked the market with their aggressive production cuts in the May WASDE putting the crop at a 54 year low, according to Arlan Suderman, StoneX.
Vince Boddicker with Farmers Trading Company, says grain markets rallied on Monday adding risk premium on the war headlines but also positioning ahead of the May WASDE and China summit.
Cattle futures posted lower weekly closes and Brad Kooima with Kooima Kooima Varilek says the action was a red flag to him since it came after record fed cash trade.
Jerry Gulke, president of The Gulke Group, says the market is anticipating additional purchases of U.S. soybeans to be announced at the summit, in addition to other agricultural products.
Dan Basse with Ag Resource Company says grains chopped following crude oil most of the week but rallied on Friday adding in war premium. Plus, soybeans led gains on talk of China buying soybeans.