Market Analysis
Jamie Gieseke with Paradigm Futures says commodities are starting to gain favor with the funds on inflation fears and that includes grains. A China deal could just add fuel to the fire.
Both classes of winter wheat ended limit up on the day as USDA shocked the market with their aggressive production cuts in the May WASDE putting the crop at a 54 year low, according to Arlan Suderman, StoneX.
Vince Boddicker with Farmers Trading Company, says grain markets rallied on Monday adding risk premium on the war headlines but also positioning ahead of the May WASDE and China summit.
Cattle futures posted lower weekly closes and Brad Kooima with Kooima Kooima Varilek says the action was a red flag to him since it came after record fed cash trade.
Jerry Gulke, president of The Gulke Group, says the market is anticipating additional purchases of U.S. soybeans to be announced at the summit, in addition to other agricultural products.
Dan Basse with Ag Resource Company says grains chopped following crude oil most of the week but rallied on Friday adding in war premium. Plus, soybeans led gains on talk of China buying soybeans.
Scott Varilek of Kooima Kooima Varilek says cash cattle trade hit record levels on Thursday and helped pull futures higher Friday. Grains are trying to recover from the big wash out with crude oil this week.
Jeff Hoogendoorn with Professional Ag Marketing says grains were still tied to crude oil today and corn and soybeans ended off their lows when that market recovered. Cattle fell despite record cash up to $260.
Darin Newsom, senior market analyst for Barchart, says the odds are slim that the war with Iran is over. So he thinks the grain markets will soon find support.
Oliver Sloup with Blue Line Futures says grain markets were trying to divorce from the war headlines and crude oil the last few weeks but now are right back trading with the energy moves.
Greg McBride of Allendale, says grains markets saw profit taking, also saw some farmer selling and hedge pressure on Tuesday.
Grain markets were all lower to start Tuesday seeing some routine profit taking after hitting new highs for the move and even some new contract highs in parts of the corn and soybean complex, according to Brady Huck with Empower Ag Trading.
Brad Kooima of Kooima Kooima Varilek says it is dangerous to try to pick a high in this cattle market but it fits the profile of a technical top.
John Heinberg with Total Farm Marketing says soybeans made fresh highs early Monday on strong crush and China export hopes ramping up to the mid-May meeting.
Jim McCormick of AgMarket.Net says a new month brought in new money to the grain complex on inflationary concerns. How much higher could it go?
Scott Varilek of Kooima Kooima Varilek says tight supplies and a record cash market have supported the move to new highs. How high can live and feeder cattle futures run?
Allison Thompson with The Money Farm says corn and wheat saw some end of month profit taking Thursday, but it is a healthy correction.
Chip Nellinger with Blue Reef Agri-Marketing says it’s end of the month, so he chalks this up to some routine profit taking and farmer selling.
Dave Chatterton with Strategic Farm Marketing says the grain markets were supported by money flow and funds were buying adding risk premium tied to war, inflation fears with soaring energy prices and weather.
Grains were higher Wednesday with new contract highs in hard red winter wheat and December corn according to Mark Knight with Farmer’s Keeper Financial. Live cattle were also making new highs on record cash.
Randy Martinson with Martinson Ag says the wheat market is adding risk premium tied to weather and global production and geopolitical concerns and could continue to pull corn higher.
Lane Akre, economist with Pro Farmer, says says the wheat market could take out the March highs and help pull corn higher. He thinks markets are trading global production concerns.
The grain and livestock futures saw commodity wide fund buying with a risk on tone to the market according to DuWayne Bosse with Bolt Marketing.
Brad Kooima with Kooima Kooima Varilek says some of the recovery is technical in nature as the June live cattle bounce off of key support and the 38% retracement level around $243.00 last Thursday. However, there are also fundamental reasons for bounce.
Darren Frye with Water Street Solutions says corn and wheat are trading weather and have divorced from the war headlines.
Scott Varilek with Kooima Kooima Varilek says $243 was the line in the sand for the June live cattle or funds would liquidate and it held after Brooke Rollins canceled her trip to Arizona which alleviated fears of a border reopening.
Garrett Toay with AgTraderTalk says the HRW wheat market was adding weather premium with forecasts continuing to look hot and dry for the Southern Plains.