Be ready for shifting grain market supply and demand fundamentals
Is 2023 when the shoe drops? Or will it provide some of the same profitable grain marketing opportunities as 2021 and 2022?
Questionable corn demand and expected production highs in South America bring major questions to the corn and soybean outlooks. Yet positive factors are evident.
We asked eight analysts to provide their best estimates on price direction and market strategies you can employ this year. Check out their views below.
Alan Brugler: Consider Grain Holding Costs and Set Price Floors
Be careful to match cost exposures to revenue opportunities and not squeeze margins when one moves the wrong way. Remember: Things change quickly, so remain flexible.
Brian Basting: Defend Your Balance Sheet in an Uncertain Market Outlook
High prices will cure high prices. It is already occurring with acreage increases in South America and demand destruction in various regions.
Richard Brock: The Shifting Sands of Corn Basis
Historically, corn basis has been wide in the Midwest and the western Corn Belt, while tight in the East. In 2022 it was the opposite. What happened?
Angie Setzer: Global Recession Weighs on Grain Market Outlook
For 2023, key market factors are the same as 2022 — China demand and South American production.
Bill Biedermann: The World Needs Both North and South American Bin Busters
Thus, the trend of the 2023/24 ag markets is clearly balancing on a tightrope of weather.
Mark Gold: Protect Profitable Prices with Put Options
I believe the top lesson from the 2022 crop year is farmers need to put aside the market hype and look to sell grain on rallies, or at least protect high prices with put options.
Naomi Blohm: Use Seasonal Grain Tendencies to Your Advantage This Winter
The Fed being hellbent on fighting inflation will temper grain commodity prices in the year ahead.
Matthew Kruse: Avoid Market Noise and Stay Focused on Price Targets
For 2023, evaluate your production risk. I would only become aggressive once prices move beyond your breakeven costs.
