Market Outlooks
Will 2026 be a repeat of 2016? Chris Barron, Ag View Solutions, shares four strategies to help farmers capture some profit in this down cycle.
After the three-year hiatus of down markets, grains have turned positive at least in the short-term, which is the first element of turning long-term positive.
Beyond a few marketing strategies or providing a unique product for a niche market, sustainable practices offer opportunity in what looks to be another low-priced period in the grain markets.
Until USDA’s May WASDE report rolls around, these acreage, yield, supply and ending stock figures are the talk of the town.
We asked seven commodity market analysts to give commodity market outlooks for 2024 With their insights, the bearish market conditions will carry over, with a slightly more optimistic outlook for soybeans over corn.
Dan Basse: “Importantly, managed money is sitting on their largest net short CBOT grain position in four years.”
Naomi Blohm: “The U.S. soybean story remains quite friendly to start 2024 with historically small ending stocks and strong crush demand.”
Peter Meyer says, “Both the corn and soybean markets will need to take their lead from changes in both global and domestic demand given the production shortfall stories have become stale.”
Chip Nellinger says, “Producers should be prepared to be more aggressive than years past in protecting downside price risk.”
“Near term, the soybean market has a loftier perch with a tight balance sheet emerging from supply headwinds,” says Mike North.
“It’s difficult to find anything bullish to say about corn for 2024.” says Jon Scheve.
Angie Setzer says, “With their new trade agreement with Brazil, China is likely to import less corn from the U.S. in 2023.”
Leading ag economists expect inflation to return in 2024 and that will not only have an impact on the interest rate environment, but it could bring the fund or speculative community back in to buy commodities.
Despite the markets pricing in lower interest rates, Arlan Suderman expects inflation to rear its ugly head sometime in 2024.
According to a recent report from CoBank, an abundance of corn and soybeans has resulted in cheaper basis and bigger carries in futures markets.
The trend of lower net farm income farmers are seeing for 2023 looks like it could continue into next season.
Experts anticipate better prices and supplies to end 2023 after the surge in 2022 made for some of the most expensive crops ever.
Sixty-five percent of farmers surveyed in July expect interest rates to climb in the next 12 months. On a positive note, 7 out of 10 said they expect farmland cash rental rates to remain roughly the same for 2024.
The grain markets posted another active week. May corn prices were up 9¢ and May soybean prices were up 30¢, for the week ending April 16.
Wow. This week saw corn prices top $6 and soybean prices top $15.
A questionable weather forecast and a flash sale of soybeans to China helped commodities close higher this week, with the exception of November soybean prices.
Contrary to last week, corn, soybean and wheat prices all found their footings and closed higher.
Grain prices saw improvement this week. December corn prices were up 10.25¢, for the week ending Sept. 17.
The grain markets were lower this week, ahead of next week’s USDA reports.
The grain markets reacted to this month’s Crop Production and World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates reports completely differently than the last several months.
“The wheat market didn’t take the WASDE report well,” says Jerry Gulke of the Gulke Group. “Of course, it has started this downtrend before the crop report—it had dropped a dollar in about three or four days.”
Increasing demand and economic recovery create stable outlook.