Latest News From Market Outlooks

Numbers of Note for 2024/25 Corn and Soybeans
Numbers of Note for 2024/25 Corn and Soybeans

Until USDA's May WASDE report rolls around, these acreage, yield, supply and ending stock figures are the talk of the town.

Top Producer's 2024 Bear-Bull Market Outlook
Top Producer's 2024 Bear-Bull Market Outlook

We asked seven commodity market analysts to give commodity market outlooks for 2024 With their insights, the bearish market conditions will carry over, with a slightly more optimistic outlook for soybeans over corn.

Angie Setzer: This Year Will Underscore The Importance Of Your Marketing Plan
Angie Setzer: This Year Will Underscore The Importance Of Your Marketing Plan

Angie Setzer says, "With their new trade agreement with Brazil, China is likely to import less corn from the U.S. in 2023.”

Jon Scheve: Expect To See Seasonal Rallies and Weather Risk
Jon Scheve: Expect To See Seasonal Rallies and Weather Risk

"It’s difficult to find anything bullish to say about corn for 2024." says Jon Scheve.

Mike North: Markets To Stay In the Doldrums
Mike North: Markets To Stay In the Doldrums

"Near term, the soybean market has a loftier perch with a tight balance sheet emerging from supply headwinds," says Mike North.  

Chip Nellinger: There Will Be At Least One Perceived Threat to Production
Chip Nellinger: There Will Be At Least One Perceived Threat to Production

Chip Nellinger says, “Producers should be prepared to be more aggressive than years past in protecting downside price risk.”

Peter Meyer: 2024 'The Year of Demand'
Peter Meyer: 2024 'The Year of Demand'

Peter Meyer says, "Both the corn and soybean markets will need to take their lead from changes in both global and domestic demand given the production shortfall stories have become stale."

Naomi Blohm: Soybeans Could Find New Country For Demand
Naomi Blohm: Soybeans Could Find New Country For Demand

Naomi Blohm: “The U.S. soybean story remains quite friendly to start 2024 with historically small ending stocks and strong crush demand.”

Dan Basse: Prepare For Abrupt And Sizable Price Swings in 2024
Dan Basse: Prepare For Abrupt And Sizable Price Swings in 2024

Dan Basse: “Importantly, managed money is sitting on their largest net short CBOT grain position in four years.”

What Impact Will Inflation and the Global Economic Slowdown Have on Grain Markets in 2024?
What Impact Will Inflation and the Global Economic Slowdown Have on Grain Markets in 2024?

Leading ag economists expect inflation to return in 2024 and that will not only have an impact on the interest rate environment, but it could bring the fund or speculative community back in to buy commodities. 

Will Inflation Return in 2024 and What Does It Mean for the Grain Markets?
Will Inflation Return in 2024 and What Does It Mean for the Grain Markets?

Despite the markets pricing in lower interest rates, Arlan Suderman expects inflation to rear its ugly head sometime in 2024.

An Important Wildcard In The 2024 Grain Storage Outlook
An Important Wildcard In The 2024 Grain Storage Outlook

According to a recent report from CoBank, an abundance of corn and soybeans has resulted in cheaper basis and bigger carries in futures markets.

Net Farm Income Projected Lower for 2023 and Beyond with the Forecasted Commodity Reset
Net Farm Income Projected Lower for 2023 and Beyond with the Forecasted Commodity Reset

The trend of lower net farm income farmers are seeing for 2023 looks like it could continue into next season.

Fertilizer Free Fall: The Gamble of Locking In Prices
Fertilizer Free Fall: The Gamble of Locking In Prices

Experts anticipate better prices and supplies to end 2023 after the surge in 2022 made for some of the most expensive crops ever.

Farmers Seize Market Opportunities but Concerned about Rising Interest Rates
Farmers Seize Market Opportunities but Concerned about Rising Interest Rates

Sixty-five percent of farmers surveyed in July expect interest rates to climb in the next 12 months. On a positive note, 7 out of 10 said they expect farmland cash rental rates to remain roughly the same for 2024.

Dairy Producers Feel the Pain as Milk Prices Plunge Almost $10 Under Last Year's Record Prices
Dairy Producers Feel the Pain as Milk Prices Plunge Almost $10 Under Last Year's Record Prices

After hitting a record high for Class III fluid milk in April 2022 at nearly $26, spot month milk futures have plunged to new contract lows, hitting $14.92 per hundred weight on June 16. 

Jerry Gulke: How to Manage Volatility in a Weather Market
Jerry Gulke: How to Manage Volatility in a Weather Market

After a volatile week, Jerry Gulke was encouraged corn and soybeans closed higher Friday and near session highs. That tells him the weather market, which is still in its early stages, hasn’t run out of steam.

Corn Market Gets Second Chance Rally on Weather, But How Long Will It Last?
Corn Market Gets Second Chance Rally on Weather, But How Long Will It Last?

Jerry Gulke, president of the Gulke Group, says the rally was both a weather and a technical recovery. The key is how long will the rally last and how should farmers position themselves in the market?

China Buys South African Corn for the First Time As They Start Turning Away From U.S. Exports
China Buys South African Corn for the First Time As They Start Turning Away From U.S. Exports

China seems to have made the strategic decision to buy ag products from just about every global supplier but the U.S., largely a result of the rising trade tensions between the two countries. 

Fed Signals They Might Pause Interest Rate Hikes: What Does That Mean for Farmers and Commodity Markets?
Fed Signals They Might Pause Interest Rate Hikes: What Does That Mean for Farmers and Commodity Markets?

The Federal Reserve raised interest rates 25 basis points on Wednesday and remains adamant interest rate cuts will not come until 2024 at the earliest.

Agriculture Watches West Coast Port Contract Negotiations:  Disruptions Have Already Shifted Shipping to the East Coast
Agriculture Watches West Coast Port Contract Negotiations: Disruptions Have Already Shifted Shipping to the East Coast

Agriculture is watching the ongoing contract negotiations between the unions at West Coast ports as tensions rise. However, the unreliability of shipping has already caused a shift in business to East Coast ports.

Jerry Gulke: Agriculture’s Black Swan Wake-Up Call
Jerry Gulke: Agriculture’s Black Swan Wake-Up Call

The value of capital assets and cash flow were concerns in 2008 — just as they are today. The evolution of dealing with inflation has yet to impact ag directly, but history shows a wake-up call is in process.

Ethanol Expectations: These Trends Could Drive the Industry’s Future
Ethanol Expectations: These Trends Could Drive the Industry’s Future

With the popularity of electric and hybrid vehicles growing, long-term gasoline use could drop, taking ethanol consumption with it. Will ethanol continue to be the juggernaut in the corn market?

Cattle Market Red Hot:  Cash and Futures Exceed 2014 Levels and Hit Record Highs
Cattle Market Red Hot: Cash and Futures Exceed 2014 Levels and Hit Record Highs

The cattle market is on fire with record highs in both live cattle futures and cash. So how high will the market go and how is this cycle different from 2014?

Fertilizer Prices Down 45%-60% From Last Spring But Off March Lows as Planters Roll
Fertilizer Prices Down 45%-60% From Last Spring But Off March Lows as Planters Roll

While fertilizer prices are off March lows, they are still from 45% to 60% lower than this time last year, depending on the nutrient or product.

Crude Oil Moves Back Above $80 with Talk of $100 by Year End:  What Does That Mean for Interest Rates and Diesel Fuel Costs?
Crude Oil Moves Back Above $80 with Talk of $100 by Year End: What Does That Mean for Interest Rates and Diesel Fuel Costs?

Crude oil moves back above $80, what does that mean for interest rates and diesel fuel prices for farmers this growing season?

Jerry Gulke: Markets Enter Planting Season On A Negative Note
Jerry Gulke: Markets Enter Planting Season On A Negative Note

The situation in the grain markets this spring looks much different than a year ago, says Jerry Gulke, president of Gulke Group. Unfortunately, the picture is not as price positive for the 2023 crops.

Chip Flory: A Lot To Learn About New-Crop Supply
Chip Flory: A Lot To Learn About New-Crop Supply

The next challenge for U.S. farmers? To plant the 92 million acres of corn and 87.5 million acres of soybeans.

As “go time” nears, farmers evaluate the markets to finalize cropping decisions
9 Charts to Analyze from the 2023 FAPRI Baseline

If weather conditions allow crop yields to return to trend-line levels in 2023, prices for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton and many other crops are likely to fall.

Delayed and Prevent Plant Talk Grows as Northern Plains is Hit by Another Snow Storm Tuesday
Delayed and Prevent Plant Talk Grows as Northern Plains is Hit by Another Snow Storm Tuesday

The Northern Plains was hit by another winter storm on Tuesday adding to the snowpack which ranges from several inches to several feet.  So is it too early to start talking about planting delays?

Jerry Gulke: USDA Report Equals Tight Soybean Stocks and Wiggle Room for Corn
Jerry Gulke: USDA Report Equals Tight Soybean Stocks and Wiggle Room for Corn

USDA’s Prospective Plantings and Quarterly Grain Stocks reports tend to produce big price moves, and this year was no different. Jerry Gulke provides his analysis of the important data.

Market Veterans Provide Preview of USDA Prospective Plantings and Quarterly Stocks Reports
Market Veterans Provide Preview of USDA Prospective Plantings and Quarterly Stocks Reports

Markets are gearing up for UDSA's Prospective Plantings and Quarterly Grains Stocks Reports. 

Ahead of USDA's Prospective Planting Report: What's Driving Farmer's Acreage Decisions This Season?
Ahead of USDA's Prospective Planting Report: What's Driving Farmer's Acreage Decisions This Season?

Farmers around the Corn Belt are anticipating a big year for corn, especially with improving soil moisture in corn-deficit areas where cash prices have remained strong.    

Conflicting Reports: Will Russia Ban Exports or Not?
Conflicting Reports: Will Russia Ban Exports or Not?

Questions are arising about whether or not Russia will temporarily halt wheat and sunflower exports after a sharp drop in global prices in recent weeks and conflicting stories on Friday. 

China Keeps Buying U.S. Corn, Soybeans and Ag Goods Despite Strained Relationship
China Keeps Buying U.S. Corn, Soybeans and Ag Goods Despite Strained Relationship

Political tensions between the U.S. and China have run high the past several months.  The good news is it doesn’t appear there has been much spillover into U.S. agricultural trade. 

When Will the Market Start to Care That the Winter Wheat Crop Is In Poor Condition?
When Will the Market Start to Care That the Winter Wheat Crop Is In Poor Condition?

While the wheat market might not be respecting the situation, there are big concerns about the nation's winter wheat crop due to drought.

Crude Oil Prices Drop Below $70:  What is the Outlook for Consumers at the Pump and Farmers Heading Into Spring Planting?
Crude Oil Prices Drop Below $70: What is the Outlook for Consumers at the Pump and Farmers Heading Into Spring Planting?

Oil prices are also off their highs of last year and gas and diesel prices are also sliding at the pump, but will that trend continue ahead of planting?   Energy experts are hoping the answer is yes.  

Jerry Gulke: What Impact Will the Financial Black Swan Have on Agriculture?
Jerry Gulke: What Impact Will the Financial Black Swan Have on Agriculture?

The financial industry was hit with a black swan due to the shuttering of two high-profile banks.  This has implications for ag markets and lessons for farmers, says Jerry Gulke of Gulke Group. 

Bank Defaults Create Some Concern: Will It Spill Over Into Rural Financial Institutions?
Bank Defaults Create Some Concern: Will It Spill Over Into Rural Financial Institutions?

While experts don't compare the recent collapse of several high-profile banks to the financial industry crisis in 2008 and 2009, there is a level of nervousness that bears watching.

Chip Flory: The Acreage Baseline is Set for 2023
Chip Flory: The Acreage Baseline is Set for 2023

With USDA’s carryover estimates trending higher and price outlook trending lower from last year, many expect the sideways trends in new-crop futures to continue until the next shift in the fundamental outlook. 

USDA Projects Higher Ending Stocks for Primary Crops in 2023-24, Lower Prices to Follow
USDA Projects Higher Ending Stocks for Primary Crops in 2023-24, Lower Prices to Follow

USDA is projecting higher production of major commodities for the upcoming crop season for the U.S. and globally, releasing their baseline projections for the upcoming marketing year at the USDA Ag Outlook Forum.  

Natural Gas Prices Drop 80%:  Should End Users be Lining up Supplies?
Natural Gas Prices Drop 80%: Should End Users be Lining up Supplies?

The United States natural gas market has imploded with prices dropping 80% since summer. So, should end users be locking in supplies?

John Phipps: Recession? What Recession?
John Phipps: Recession? What Recession?

Ag families experience recessions most tangibly through their non-farm personal connections, making them worth watching, regardless of farm economics.  

U.S. Orange Production at Lowest Level Since Great Depression:  Florida Growers and Orange Juice Prices Feel the Shock Waves
U.S. Orange Production at Lowest Level Since Great Depression: Florida Growers and Orange Juice Prices Feel the Shock Waves

Orange production in Florida is projected to be down nearly two-thirds from last year and according to USDA at levels not seen since the Great Depression.  What does this mean for producers and consumers?

Jerry Gulke: Is There New Life for the Wheat Market?
Jerry Gulke: Is There New Life for the Wheat Market?

Technically speaking the price action of Chicago, Kansas City and Minneapolis wheat varieties are signaling a change is coming — one that might not be recognized until the price ship has sailed. 

2017 Outlook
5 Crop and Livestock Charts to Ponder from USDA’s 10-Year Outlook

What will the next decade hold for your farm? What factors should you use to weigh investments or crop planning?  Here are five trends and data sets to ponder from USDA's latest Agricultural Baseline Projections.

Despite Headwinds U.S. Beef Exports Hit Record in 2022: Pork Export Value Still in Top Three
Despite Headwinds U.S. Beef Exports Hit Record in 2022: Pork Export Value Still in Top Three

U.S. beef exports set annual records for both volume and value in 2022.  The strong performance came in the face of many supply chain headwinds in the last year and COVID lockdowns in China.    

3 Supply and Demand Takeaways from USDA's February Report
3 Supply and Demand Takeaways from USDA's February Report

While Tyler Schau, AgMarket.Net hedging strategist, wouldn’t call this month’s report a barnburner, it did have a few market implications.

Chip Flory: Time For A Change In Market Attitude
Chip Flory: Time For A Change In Market Attitude

USDA’s January updates limit downside price risk but do not eliminate the risk of lower prices.

Jerry Gulke: Markets Calm Ahead of Major USDA Reports
Jerry Gulke: Markets Calm Ahead of Major USDA Reports

The grain markets this week had trading ranges typical of a daily range a few months past. They appear to be calming down ahead of USDA’s February reports and USDA’s Ag Outlook Forum, says Jerry Gulke.