The next challenge for U.S. farmers? To plant the 92 million acres of corn and 87.5 million acres of soybeans.
In mid-February, I suggested the evidence indicated planted corn acres would be up to 92 million and soybean acres up to 89 million. That’s when I expected cotton acres to fall sharply from last year to about 10 million planted. Cotton acres did fall sharply – but the 18% dive to 11.3 million planted was 1.3 million more than anticipated. South-ern producers favored corn over soybeans in this transition, although southern soybean acres will also be up from year-ago.
MORE CORN IN 40 STATES
USDA surveys producers in 48 states for corn-planting intentions, and producers intend to plant more corn than 2022 in 40 of those states (see map above).
In 15 of the key 29 soybean states, producers intend to plant more than 2022. Increases of 100,000+ acres are expected in Minnesota, North Dakota, South Dakota and Wisconsin, which is balanced against fewer soybean acres in Arkansas, Indiana, Kansas, Michigan and Missouri.
318.1 MILLION ACRES
If the weather allows for all intended acres to be planted, total principal crop acres would reach 318.1 million – the highest tally since 2018. Acres dipped as low as 303.1 million in 2019.
If 92 million corn acres are planted and 91.5% are harvested for grain, harvested acres would tally 84.2 million. If the national average yield reaches the trend line of 181.5 bu. per acre, the 2023 crop would reach 15.28 billion bushels — topping the 2016 record. Supply could reach 16.6 billion bushels. That supply would likely pull down USDA’s outlook for a national price of $5.60.
If 87.5 million soybean acres are planted and 98.6% are harvested, harvested acres would tally 86.3 million. At a national average soybean trend-line yield of 52 bu. per acre, the 2023 soybean crop would tally nearly 4.5 billion bushels. If USDA’s usage assumptions are close, carryover could lift to about 300 million bushels in 2023/24. That suggests a national price of $12.75.
But, lose 1 million acres of corn plantings and you lose about 180 million bushels of corn. Lose 1 bu. per acre from the national average corn yield, and you lose about 84 million bushels of corn.
There’s still a lot to learn about the 2023/24 corn supply with the northern Plains under a blanket of snow on April 1.
