Fertilizer Prices Down 45%-60% From Last Spring But Off March Lows as Planters Roll

Plant 23 has started with some good news for farmers. As farmers head to the fields this spring they are facing substantially lower fertilizer product prices than they were a year ago.  In 2022, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine had driven those values to all-time record highs around the world. 

Fertilizer prices are undoubtedly still high historically, but values for all products have been working lower the last 12 months.  The amount they've cooled depends on how far away farmers are from the main supply channel.  Its largely a result of demand backing off, but recently its been helped by the improved movement of barges and a drop in barge freight rates with water levels on the Mississippi rebounding.    

Josh Linville, VP of Fertilizer for StoneX, says, "We continue to watch an old New Orleans, Louisiana due to its robust liquidity. It's a very good day to day market gauge, and actually ran these numbers versus a year ago. Urea, UAN, anhydrous and potash are all down about 60 some odd percent from where they were this time last year, phosphates only about 45%-50% But again, these numbers have gone down tremendously."  

Linville says prices for many fertilizer products, especially urea, fell the hardest in March because it was a poor application month with the cold wet weather.  However, as planting activities have started values have moved back up the last 30 days off those lows, especially for UAN and Urea.   "All of a sudden now demand is starting to step up saying I need these dumps in the spring. And that demand is starting to excite the marketplace we have actually seen over the last few weeks NOLA urea barges dip down to a low of $290 they have been trading today $350-$355, It's up $60 A ton over 30 days."

He expects prices for many fertilizer products to stay firm through May with the increase in demand tied to higher corn plantings.  StoneX is staying with their planting forecast for 92 million acres of corn, despite the heavy snowpack in the Northern Plains states.  However, Linville says prices will soften from June to August, which is good news for in season applications.  

Linville advises farmers to communicate with their retailers to make sure inventory is in place.  He says if farmers wait until the last-minute hoping for prices to go down more they may have a tough time getting product to the field in a timely manner.