From Jon Scheve, President of Grain Trading, Superior Feed Ingredients
It’s difficult to find anything bullish to say about corn for 2024. A 2-billion-bushel carryout is just too big for the market to grind through over the next year. However, that doesn’t mean the market will go straight down. I expect seasonal rallies once planting is over and the weather risk begins throughout the summer.
I don’t think the number of corn acres will be reduced substantially next year. Therefore, for the market to rally more than 50¢ from current values, there will need to be a significant weather issue in Mato Grosso, Brazil during April or May, or in Iowa and Illinois next July. On a positive note, I doubt prices will drop substantially until almost fall.
Numerous Influences on Soybeans
The soybean market is more complicated because South America grows about 65% of the world’s soybeans. That means weather there affects the market more than the
weather in the U.S.
The biofuel mandate will keep upward movement potential in the market for the next few years. However, the plants are coming online gradually, so it is unlikely prices will increase substantially from this demand alone. I doubt planted soybean acres will increase much this spring in the U.S., which should keep stocks at an adequate level.
The big unknown will always be how much China decides to purchase and how much is available in South America.
Soybeans could easily move up or down $2 per bushel this next year, but it depends on the weather on two different continents over the next year.
More Outlooks:
Dan Basse: Prepare For Abrupt And Sizable Price Swings in 2024
Naomi Blohm: Soybeans Could Find New Country For Demand
Peter Meyer: 2024 ‘The Year of Demand’
Chip Nellinger: There Will Be At Least One Perceived Threat to Production
Mike North: Markets To Stay In the Doldrums
Angie Setzer: This Year Will Underscore The Importance Of Your Marketing Plan
