From Naomi Blohm, Senior Market Adviser, Total Farm Marketing:
The reality of 2-billion-bushel carryout in the U.S. will weigh on corn prices in 2024. In order for corn futures prices to trade above $5, three things need to occur: stronger than expected U.S. export demand, a 25% reduction in the Brazil safrinha crop, and a drought in the U.S. during the summer ahead.
The U.S. soybean story remains quite friendly to start 2024 with historically small ending stocks and strong crush demand. However, the South American crop is deemed “big enough” to feed global demand for soybeans and continues to lend to higher global carryout, which will keep rallies in check. Unless the Brazil soybean crop becomes smaller than 145 mmt, it might be a struggle to see soybean prices have reason to rally over $13.50 in the coming year. Keep an eye on potential new demand from India.
More Outlooks:
Dan Basse: Prepare For Abrupt And Sizable Price Swings in 2024
Peter Meyer: 2024 ‘The Year of Demand’
Chip Nellinger: There Will Be At Least One Perceived Threat to Production
Mike North: Markets To Stay In the Doldrums
Jon Scheve: Expect To See Seasonal Rallies and Weather Risk
Angie Setzer: This Year Will Underscore The Importance Of Your Marketing Plan
