Market Veterans Provide Preview of USDA Prospective Plantings and Quarterly Stocks Reports

Markets are gearing up for UDSA's Prospective Plantings and Quarterly Grains Stocks Reports.  Average trade guesses are out and Reuters survey shows corn acreage at 90.88 million which would be up nearly 2.3 million acres from 2022 but is slightly below USDA’s projection at the Ag Outlook Forum.  Planting intension for soybeans are estimated at 88.24 million which is up nearly 800,000 from both last year and USDA’s estimate.   

Private firms like AgMarket.Net also released their estimates which show corn acres could come in higher on than the estimate as farmers locked in corn last fall with fertilizer applications.  Plus, the corn soybean price ratio and overall profitability tips in corns favor, especially now with the recent market moves.  Matt Bennett, AgMarket.Net says, "I do think though, there was a really good fall this last year for most folks where I think we quantified a lot of those acres decisions but as far as swing acres are concerned, even though beans did some work for a while, obviously plummeted the last three weeks. First of all, second of all, as you suggested fertilizer prices have cheapened up so I've got to think that as far as swing acres go if the mother nature if Mother Nature cooperates. Corn is probably going to win out on those particular acres."

On soybeans, Blue Reef Agri-Marketing’s Chip Nellinger believes acres will be above last year’s 87.5 million with the strong demand and profits farmers have seen the last couple of seasons.  However, it's all dependent on Mother Nature. He says, "I think the weather is very wet in the South. You know, do they kind of stop planting corn at a certain point switch over to beans, very wet in the north. That's where your swings come from.  I would be a touch above USDA's estimate on the beans at this point. But again, I think the final season is going to be how the next six or eight weeks of weather transfer, you know transforms."  

Trade estimates for all wheat acreage are at 48.85 million acres, compared to 45.74 million last season. Winter wheat at 34.38 million verses 33.27 million. Other spring wheat planting intensions are pegged at 10.95 million, up from 10.84 million in 2022. 

The trade believes cotton aces will be down over 2.5 million acres from 2022, at 11.21 million. 

Estimates for quarterly grain stocks are all below last year and would confirm tighter supplies, strong cash prices and demand.  Corn stocks are projected at 7.47 billion bushels, down around 300 million bushels, soybeans at 1.74 billion down nearly 200 million and wheat at 934 million, would be down about 95 million.