Jerry Gulke: Markets Enter Planting Season On A Negative Note
The situation in the grain markets this spring looks much different than a year ago, says Jerry Gulke, president of Gulke Group. Unfortunately, the picture is not as price positive for the 2023 crops.
July corn prices were down almost 16¢ and December corn prices were down 10¢ for the week ending April 6. July soybean prices were down 13¢ and November soybean prices were down 10¢. Wheat prices were down across the board — 14¢ to 25¢, depending on the contract.
Last week the market closes were much more positive, following the March 31 Prospective Plantings and Quarterly Grain Stocks reports.
“Last Friday—the report day—it was also the end of the month and the end of the quarter,” Gulke says. “We had some key reversals higher on March 31, and then to start April the market tried to extend and could not and dropped and we dropped significantly off of those highs.”
Now new-crop corn prices are around $5.60 and new-crop soybeans are around $13. Those are hard to pencil out with higher input and interest costs for this year, Gulke says.
“The market looks like it's going to build in a pretty decent yield and a higher acreage in corn,” he says. “Soybeans have a tight situation, but we have to let the Brazilian crop play out.”
These situations are showing up in the market prices, Gulke says.
“You have May corn at about a 25¢ premium to July,” he says. “So, in a couple of months, the market is saying you could buy corn cheaper than you can today, and that tells farmers to sell it and then users maybe to get by hand to mouth until next month comes.”
As a result, Gulke says he’s about 60% sold in new-crop soybeans and 40% in new-crop corn.
Check the latest market prices in AgWeb's Commodity Markets Center.
Jerry Gulke farms in Illinois and North Dakota. He is president of Gulke Group Advisory Services.
Learn more at GulkeGroup.com
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