Every week Pro Farmer shares our 5, 30 and 90 day market outlooks. This week we’re making our 30-day outlooks for corn, soybeans, wheat and cotton available to AgWeb readers. To get more market analysis and outlook, start a Pro Farmer trial membership for just $1.
Corn
The corn market will likely require stronger exports to gain further or remain at elevated levels, and this year’s shipments continue lag last year’s pace. USDA today reported net U.S. corn sales of 982,900 MT for the week ended Dec. 16, down 50% from the previous week and down 29% from the average for the previous four weeks. Sales were within trade expectations ranging from 725,000 MT to 1.4 MMT. So far in the 2021-22 marketing year, total corn export commitments (exports plus outstanding sales) total 39.5 MMT, 6.5% under the same period a year ago. Focus early next year will shift to USDA’s Crop Production and Supply and Demand reports Jan. 12.
Soybeans
Dryness this month has taken the top end off production potential, but barring a complete weather disaster in January, South America will produce a record soybean crop, led by Brazil. With South American weather being the primary source of support on the rally, buyer interest could dry up if rains return to the dry areas in January. Weather markets can be powerful while they last, but can also end abruptly if the pattern changes. Use the current rally to advance sales.
Wheat
Despite dropping sharply from nine-year highs posted in November, winter wheat futures are still elevated by historical standards. To sustain lofty levels, U.S. wheat exports must improve in the coming weeks, and the news on that front was a bit encouraging today. Net weekly U.S. wheat sales totaled 425,400 MT for the week ended Dec. 16, down 35% from the previous week that was a marketing-year high, but up 11% from the four-week average.
Cotton
A worrisome element for the cotton market bulls is recently declining weekly U.S. exports. To keep cotton futures prices at lofty levels, U.S. sales will likely have to improve. USDA today reported net U.S. cotton sales of 243,900 running bales (RB) for 2021-22, down 15% from the previous week and down 21% from the prior four-week average. Increases were primarily for China (68,700 RB) and Vietnam (32,700 RB). Exports of 131,100 RB were unchanged from the previous week, but up 27% from the prior four-week average. The destinations were primarily to China (58,300 RB) and Vietnam (17,900 RB).
