Price action: March corn futures rose 4 1/4 cents to $6.54 1/4, up 3 1/4 cents for the week. New-crop December futures rose 1 1/4 cent to $5.97 3/4 after posting a contract high at $5.99 1/2 earlier today.
5-day outlook: Corn futures ended the week near seven-month highs behind spillover support from gains in soybeans and ongoing concerns that a potential Russian invasion of Ukraine my disrupt global grain trade. Russia/Ukraine tensions will likely be the key price influencer for corn futures following the three-day weekend, along with South American weather and speculative money flow. Drought-stressed crops in South America may receive moisture relief in coming weeks, but it will likely come too late to prevent substantial yield losses in some areas. If corn market strength carries over into next week, bulls may aim for a test of the March contract’s high at $6.62 3/4, posted Feb. 10.
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30-day outlook: Corn futures will require strong domestic and foreign demand, as well as strength in soybeans, to sustain or build on current lofty prices. Signs of further demand slippage emerged in recent weeks, with ethanol production down sharply from late-2021 levels and exports running well behind last year’s pace. U.S. export commitments (accumulated exports plus outstanding sales) lag last year’s levels by 21%. USDA’s March 9 Supply & Demand Report will be watched for any changes to the domestic and global balance sheets.
90-day outlook: The U.S. spring planting outlook will increasingly come into focus, along with development of Brazil’s second-crop corn. U.S. farmers are widely expected to plant fewer acres to corn due to high prices for fertilizer and other inputs. We currently expect U.S. corn plantings to decline 3 million acres this year to 90.4 million acres, though results from our spring acreage survey that will be emailed next week will give us a better idea of planting intentions.
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