El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) indicators are mostly at neutral levels and the 2021–22 La Niña event has ended, according to the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. However, it says “observations and climate model outlooks suggest La Niña may re-form later in 2022.” As a result, the bureau issued a La Niña Watch, which means there is around a 50% chance of La Niña forming later in 2022. This is approximately double the normal likelihood. La Niña events increase the chance of above average winter–spring rainfall across much of northern and eastern Australia.
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In the U.S., La Niña events tend to favor warmer and drier weather over the southern U.S., which can sometimes push up into Corn Belt. The U.S. Climate Prediction Center (CPC) in June stated, “Uncertainty remains over whether La Niña may transition to ENSO-neutral during the summer, with forecasters predicting a 52% chance of La Niña and a 46% chance of ENSO-neutral during July-September 2022. After this season, the forecast is for renewed cooling, with La Niña favored during the fall and early winter.” CPC is scheduled to release its updated ENSO forecast later this week.
