The crop situation in Canada ranges from dryness/drought in areas of the Western Prairies to excessive wetness/flooding in eastern growing regions. Mike Jubinville of Canada-based MarketsFarm provides the following assessment:
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“A rough estimate... Western Canada is about 75% planted. Manitoba is extremely wet, with Winnipeg recording the second wettest spring on record, and is only about 40% planted. Eastern Saskatchewan is similar. Growers are shifting away from corn/beans, likely to more canola, maybe wheat, oats. Prairie-wide, upwards of 10% of total crop land is at risk of facing some acreage shifts or abandonment.
“Like every year at this time, we stress about areas that are too dry or too wet... with a swath of regions somewhere in between. The glass-half-empty crowd is supply-bullish. The glass-half-full crowd is focused on what has been seeded, knowing that a wide range of supply outcomes are still possible. That said… I think Western Canada does have very real incremental crop challenges...ones that already reduce the odds of a strong yield/production outcome overall this year but does not yet assure poor a poor crop or eliminate the possibility yet of a normal overall outcome. June is usually a month to over-think supply vagaries, while plants kill time growing into July reproduction.”
