Canadian wheat stocks fell 18.5% from year-ago to 4.6 MMT as of July 31, according to Statistics Canada. The decline was partially due to lower total national supply (down 1% to 38.7 MMT). Commercial stocks rose 39.7% to 3.8 MMT, while on-farm stocks fell 72.7% to 796 000 MMT. Wheat excluding durum fell 20.7% to 4.0 MMT, while durum wheat inventories edged up 0.3% to 576,000 MT. Exports of wheat in 2023-24 fell 1.2% to 25.2 MMT but remained above the five-year average.
Canadian canola stocks increased 66.9% to 3.1 MMT. Commercial stocks rose 129.0% to 2.3 MMT, while on-farm stocks fell 7.7% to 775,000 MT. Total domestic disappearance of canola (mostly for crushing) increased 8.1% to a record 11.5 MMT, in response to increased demand for renewable energy. Higher domestic disappearance was more than offset by lower exports of canola (down 15.9% to 6.7 MMT). Canola exports declined due to lower global demand caused by competition from soybean and palm oils, combined with higher domestic demand for industrial uses.
It is important to note that Canada made revisions to data over the past three years. Canada revised last year’s wheat stocks up from 3.51 MMT to 5.625 MMT. Canada revised higher past production. Last year’s production of 32.946 MMT was 1 MMT more than previously estimated. The 2022 crop increased nearly 500,000 MT. USDA will adopt the Canadian numbers for its world wheat balance sheet, so these will be bearish monthly revisions in Thursday’s reports.
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