Despite long-standing trends showing an increase in meat consumption as countries’ incomes rise, a shift seems to be occurring. According to a world agricultural outlook report, in high-income nations like Western Europe and North America, per-capita meat consumption is predicted to decrease in the coming decade. These nations, constituting roughly one-sixth of the global population, account for about one-third of the total meat consumed worldwide.
The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) and the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) indicate in their Agricultural Outlook 2023-32 report that the trend of stagnation in meat consumption is noticeable in most wealthy countries. They predict poultry will supply 41% of meat protein in 2032, primarily due to consumers’ increasing sensitivity towards animal welfare, environmental impacts and health concerns wherein poultry has the smallest carbon footprint.
Specifically, in the European Union, an ongoing shift from beef and pork to poultry is anticipated. Similarly, in North America and Oceania — which have historically preferred beef — a significant dip in per-capita consumption is expected.
Even though affluent consumers might consume lower amounts of meat, global meat demand remains strong, particularly in lower-income nations. The report expects a 2% per-capita increase in global meat consumption over the upcoming 10 years, brought on by rising incomes and population growth. Meat consumption, as per type and tonnage, is poised to increase 15% for poultry and sheep, 11% for pork and 10% for beef.
The analysts expect global meat consumption will continue to grow until 2075. However, factors like demographic trends, human health, animal welfare and environmental concerns could negatively influence meat consumption in the long term, with world meat demand potentially starting to fall during the remainder of the century.
The report forecasts global agricultural and food production will grow annually by an average of 1.1% through 2032, which is half of the growth rate observed in the decade before 2015. Furthermore, an increase in fertilizer prices by 10% could result in a 2% rise in food prices, disproportionately affecting the poor.
Of note: OECD and FAO call for investments in innovation, productivity gains and reductions in production’s carbon intensity to ensure food security, affordability and sustainability long-term. Read the latest news and market analysis from Pro Farmer.
