Price action: December corn futures rose 7 1/2 cents to $6.23 1/4, still down 19 cents for the week.
5-day outlook: Corn posted modest gains late this week but not enough to offset the sharp declines posted early this week, with the market holding a sideways-neutral posture heading into next week. Weekend weather and USDA’s weekly crop ratings updates Monday will be key to next week’s price direction, and traders will closely follow the annual Pro Farmer Midwest Crop Tour to determine whether strong yield prospects in the eastern Corn Belt can overcome dryness damage in western areas.
30-day outlook: Accelerating grain shipments from Ukraine, if continued, will remain a bearish influence on grain futures. Ukraine exported 2.99 MMT of grains since July 1, according to the country’s ag ministry. Grain futures bulls will continue to be squelched if the grain continues to flow smoothly out of Ukraine and the Black Sea region. However, the Ukraine war remains difficult to predict, and any worsening holds potential to disrupt the country’s ag sector. USDA’s Crop Production Report Sept. 12 will be highly anticipated.
90-day outlook: Longer-term focus will shift to U.S. harvest progress and early yield results early this fall. This month’s USDA data showing lower-than-expected corn yield and production numbers may have put in a floor under the corn futures market. Better export demand for U.S. corn is needed for prices to appreciate significantly. Renewed strength in the U.S. dollar could becoming a growing bearish influence.
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