Price action: May corn rose 5 1/4 cents to $4.69 1/4 and gave up 1/4 cent on the week.
5-day outlook: Corn futures ended the week on a positive note, though remained technically strapped despite support from extended U.S. dollar weakness and corrective strength in crude oil futures. The marketplace will continue to focus on trade negotiations, though next week will include USDA’s WASDE report, due out March 11, which could bring a muted tone early in the week.
30-day outlook: USDA’s survey-based Prospective Planting Report will be the major focus in the next month, which will switch quickly to weather as U.S. planting efforts commence. While the marketplace generally expects larger corn acres, waning working capital on the average U.S. farm and rather robust input prices could have many producers leaning toward soybeans despite the current supply and demand landscape. Moreover, weak cotton prices are likely to also entice alternate crops, with soybeans and grain sorghum both lesser cost options.
90-day outlook: Weather in the U.S. and Brazil will be the main focus over the next few months, along with export and ethanol demand as the marketplace gauges both domestic and global demand amid lingering inflation, which will likely keep interest rates elevated and ultimately crimp buying power. However, a borderline tight domestic supply situation and a late-planted Brazilian safrinha crop could lead to heightened volatility if weather proves subpar.
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