The latest ENSO forecast from the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the U.S. Climate Prediction Center today implied El Niño may be peaking already. World Weather Inc. “believes the model may be mishandling a short-term bout of cooling that is occurring off the west coast of South America. That cooling trend coupled with a slower cooling trend occurring in the subsurface central Pacific Ocean may have the model forecasts tilted toward more aggressive weakening in El Niño conditions than what logic would suggest. The model is likely to correct itself in future weeks.”
World Weather notes: “There is not likely enough cool weather to eliminate El Nino and that is one of the reasons we believe El Niño may slightly weaken for a little while and then strengthen again during the middle to latter part of October into November when these cooling biases should be gone. None of these ocean water temperature changes will have much influence on world weather unless El Niño begins to dissipate. El Niño will remain strong enough to dominate the ocean and atmosphere in much of the world through the fourth quarter of this year and the means the traditional weather anomalies should remain in place.”
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