USDA’s initial forecast calls for net farm income to plunge $39.8 million (25.5%) to $116.1 billion in 2024. This follows a decrease of $29.7 billion (16.0%) from to $155.9 billion in 2023. After adjusting for inflation, net farm income is forecast to drop $43.1 billion (27.1%) in 2024. With this expected decline, net farm income would be 1.7% below its 20-year average (2003–22) and 40.9% below the record high in 2022 in inflation-adjusted dollars.
Net cash farm income is forecast at $121.7 billion in 2024, a decline of $38.7 billion (24.1%). This follows a decrease of $41.8 billion (20.7%) last year. When adjusted for inflation, 2024 net cash farm income is forecast to fall $42.2 billion (25.8%) from 2023, and expected to be 13.7% below its 2003–22 average and 43.2% below the record high in 2022.
Cash receipts from the sale of agricultural commodities are forecast to decrease $21.2 billion (4.2%) to $485.5 billion in 2024. Total crop receipts are expected to decline $16.7 billion (6.3%), led by lower receipts for corn and soybeans. Total animal/animal product receipts are expected to drop $4.6 billion (1.9%), following declines in receipts for eggs, turkeys, cattle/calves and milk.
Direct government payments are forecast to fall $1.9 billion (15.9%) to $10.2 billion in 2024, largely because of lower supplemental and ad hoc disaster assistance relative to 2023.
Farm sector equity is expected to increase by 4.7% to $3.74 trillion in nominal terms. Farm sector debt is expected to increase 5.2% to $547.6 billion. Debt-to-asset levels for the sector are forecast to worsen slightly from 12.73% in 2023 to 12.78% this year.
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