Based on USDA’s June acreage estimate and crop condition ratings as of June 30, Farmdoc Daily estimates the corn crop at 14.99 billion bu., with a range of 14.58 billion bu. to 15.40 billion bushels. The national average corn yield is estimated to be 179.7 bu. per acre, with a range of 174.8 bu. to 184.6 bu. per acre.
FarmDoc used USDA’s crop condition ratings in the top 18 production states to predict yield and production. Because the yield per acre from the individual states can’t be summed together, the yield was calculated from the total production divided by the total harvested acres. Total U.S. corn production was calculated by adjusting the production from the 18 leading corn states upward based on the historic relationship between U.S. production and those states.
FarmDoc noted, “It is still early in the growing season. Readers should expect changes to the estimates as the season progresses and perhaps even significant changes depending on the amount of rain received over the growing season. Also, as noted by [Scott] Irwin and [Darrel] Good, the earliest estimates probably tend to overestimate yields.”
