Brazil’s soybean crushing capacity over the next three years is expected to increase at nearly twice the rate of the last three years, according to Itau BBA’s Agro Consulting. Itau BBA is tracking 13 new projects that will add 37,000 metric tons per day to Brazil’s crushing capacity between 2025 and 2027 through new plants and expansions. This will add an additional crushing capacity of 11.1 MMT per year.
Soy crushing capacity in Brazil is expected to increase from 59.4 MMT this year to 72.1 MMT in 2027. South American consultant Dr. Michael Cordonnier says historically, 92% of the crushing capacity is utilized on an annual basis. Therefore, soybean crushing will go from 54.5 MMT in 2024 to 66.3 MMT in 2027, representing an annual growth of 6.8%.
The “Fuel of the Future” law in Brazil will continue to increase the demand for soybean oil for biodiesel. Currently, biodiesel in Brazil contains 14% vegetable oil (B14) with soyoil being the primary feed stock. The mixture is expected to reach 15% (B15) in March 2025, 16% (B16) in March 2026 and 17% (B17) in March 2027. Eventually, the mixture is expected to reach 25% (B25), although these increases need to be ratified annually by the National Energy Policy Council (CNPE).
Biodiesel consumption in Brazil is expected to grow from 9.3 billion liters this year to 12.3 billion liters in 2027, an annual increase of 9.7%. The demand for soyoil for biodiesel production should jump from 5.9 MMT in 2024 to 7.9 MMT in 2027, an increase of 34%. Cordonnier says with this growth in biodiesel consumption, soyoil exports are expected to remain at around 1 MMT annually, below the 1.8 MMT five-year average.
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